论文标题

共形预测间隔,用于剩余有用的寿命估计

Conformal Prediction Intervals for Remaining Useful Lifetime Estimation

论文作者

Javanmardi, Alireza, Hüllermeier, Eyke

论文摘要

预后学和健康管理的主要目标是估算剩余的有用寿命(RUL),即,在开始运行错误之前,系统或设备仍处于工作状态。近年来,已经提出了许多机器学习算法来进行规则估计,主要集中于提供更准确的规则预测。但是,问题的不确定性来源很多,例如系统失败的固有随机性,对其未来状态的知识缺乏知识以及基本预测模型的不准确性,这使得准确预测统治是不可避免的。因此,与规则预测旁边量化不确定性至关重要。在这项工作中,我们通过预测目标变量的可能值集(在RUL的情况下)而不是做出点预测来研究代表不确定性的保形预测(CP)框架。在非常温和的技术假设下,CP正式保证预测集的实际值(真正的RUL)具有可以预先指定的一定程度的确定性。我们研究了三种CP算法,以使任何单点RUL预测变量结合在一起,并将其变成有效的间隔预测指标。最后,我们将两个单点Rul预测变量,深度卷积神经网络和梯度提升结合在一起,并说明了它们在商业模块化航空航空系统模拟(C-MAPS)数据集上的性能。

The main objective of Prognostics and Health Management is to estimate the Remaining Useful Lifetime (RUL), namely, the time that a system or a piece of equipment is still in working order before starting to function incorrectly. In recent years, numerous machine learning algorithms have been proposed for RUL estimation, mainly focusing on providing more accurate RUL predictions. However, there are many sources of uncertainty in the problem, such as inherent randomness of systems failure, lack of knowledge regarding their future states, and inaccuracy of the underlying predictive models, making it infeasible to predict the RULs precisely. Hence, it is of utmost importance to quantify the uncertainty alongside the RUL predictions. In this work, we investigate the conformal prediction (CP) framework that represents uncertainty by predicting sets of possible values for the target variable (intervals in the case of RUL) instead of making point predictions. Under very mild technical assumptions, CP formally guarantees that the actual value (true RUL) is covered by the predicted set with a degree of certainty that can be prespecified. We study three CP algorithms to conformalize any single-point RUL predictor and turn it into a valid interval predictor. Finally, we conformalize two single-point RUL predictors, deep convolutional neural networks and gradient boosting, and illustrate their performance on the Commercial Modular Aero-Propulsion System Simulation (C-MAPSS) data sets.

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