论文标题

一种用于监测疾病阳性和病例特征的设计和分析策略

A Design and Analytic Strategy for Monitoring Disease Positivity and Case Characteristics in Accessible Closed Populations

论文作者

Lyles, Robert H., Zhang, Yuzi, Ge, Lin, Waller, Lance A.

论文摘要

我们提出了一种监测策略,以对疾病患病率和案件数量的有效且可靠的估计,例如学校,工作场所或退休社区等人口中的疾病流行和病例数。拟议的设计主要依赖于自愿测试,臭名昭著(例如,在Covid-19)由于非代表性采样而产生了偏见。该方法产生了公正和相对精确的估计,没有关于个人自愿测试选择的因素的假设,这是基于可能是一个小的随机抽样组件的强度。该组件解锁了先前提出的“锚式流”估计量,这是基于两个数据流的经典捕获重新调节(CRC)估计量的良好校准的替代方案。我们在这里表明,该估计器等于基于“捕获”的直接标准化,即通过自愿测试程序的选择(或不选择),这是通过设计确定的关键参数而成为可能的。这种等效性同时允许对一般均值的新型两流CRC样估计(例如,抗体水平或生物标志物等连续变量)。对于推断,我们建议在估计案例计数和自举变量时进行估算计数和引导时进行适应。我们使用仿真来证明相对于单独的随机抽样而显示出显着的精确益处。

We propose a monitoring strategy for efficient and robust estimation of disease prevalence and case numbers within closed and enumerated populations such as schools, workplaces, or retirement communities. The proposed design relies largely on voluntary testing, notoriously biased (e.g., in the case of COVID-19) due to non-representative sampling. The approach yields unbiased and comparatively precise estimates with no assumptions about factors underlying selection of individuals for voluntary testing, building on the strength of what can be a small random sampling component. This component unlocks a previously proposed "anchor stream" estimator, a well-calibrated alternative to classical capture-recapture (CRC) estimators based on two data streams. We show here that this estimator is equivalent to a direct standardization based on "capture", i.e., selection (or not) by the voluntary testing program, made possible by means of a key parameter identified by design. This equivalency simultaneously allows for novel two-stream CRC-like estimation of general means (e.g., of continuous variables such as antibody levels or biomarkers). For inference, we propose adaptations of a Bayesian credible interval when estimating case counts and bootstrapping when estimating means of continuous variables. We use simulations to demonstrate significant precision benefits relative to random sampling alone.

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