论文标题
蜜蜂糟透了的地方 - 一种动态的贝叶斯网络方法，用于为传粉媒介策略提供决策支持
Where the Bee Sucks -- A Dynamic Bayesian Network Approach to Decision Support for Pollinator Abundance Strategies
论文作者
论文摘要
对于希望做出基于证据的决策的政策制定者，挑战之一是如何以连贯且可辩护的方式结合相关信息和证据，以制定和评估候选政策。决策者通常需要依靠具有不同专业知识领域的专家，在复杂，多方面的，动态的环境（例如处理生态系统服务的人）中做出政策选择。影响蜜蜂（Apis Mellifera），野生蜜蜂和其他授粉媒介的生存和授粉能力的压力是有据可查的，但不完整。为了估算各种候选政策支持授粉服务的潜在有效性，迫切需要量化各种变量组合对授粉生态系统服务的影响，利用可用的信息，模型和专家判断。在本文中，我们介绍了集成决策支持系统方法的新应用，以结合多个专家小组的投入，以评估政策以支持大量的授粉媒介人群。
For policymakers wishing to make evidence-based decisions, one of the challenges is how to combine the relevant information and evidence in a coherent and defensible manner in order to formulate and evaluate candidate policies. Policymakers often need to rely on experts with disparate fields of expertise when making policy choices in complex, multi-faceted, dynamic environments such as those dealing with ecosystem services. The pressures affecting the survival and pollination capabilities of honey bees (Apis mellifera), wild bees and other pollinators is well-documented, but incomplete. In order to estimate the potential effectiveness of various candidate policies to support pollination services, there is an urgent need to quantify the effect of various combinations of variables on the pollination ecosystem service, utilising available information, models and expert judgement. In this paper, we present a new application of the integrating decision support system methodology for combining inputs from multiple panels of experts to evaluate policies to support an abundant pollinator population.
