论文标题
部分可观测时空混沌系统的无模型预测
Binomial Prediction Using the Frequent Outcome Approach
论文作者
论文摘要
在二项式模型的背景下，我们分析了几乎均匀的值序列，并讨论了一种称为频繁结果方法的预测方法，其中最有可能再次发生在观察到的试验中发生的结果最多。使用此预测方法，我们得出了正确预测的先验概率，以二项式模型中的基础参数值为条件。我们表明，这种预测方法将基于模型参数知识的理想预测等同于理想预测的准确性水平。
Within the context of the binomial model, we analyse sequences of values that are almost-uniform and we discuss a prediction method called the frequent outcome approach, in which the outcome that has occurred the most in the observed trials is the most likely to occur again. Using this prediction method we derive probability statements for the prior probability of correct prediction, conditional on the underlying parameter value in the binomial model. We show that this prediction method converges to a level of accuracy that is equivalent to ideal prediction based on knowledge of the model parameter.
