论文标题
效率与努力：比较最佳光伏研究细胞效率的更好方法？
Efficiency versus effort: a better way to compare best photovoltaic research cell efficiencies?
论文作者
论文摘要
通常，记录AM1.5电源转换效率与时间（例如NREL效率图表）的趋势用于分析不同光伏材料技术的相对优点。但是，这种方法掩盖了达到这些绩效水平的努力。我们将累积出版物介绍为全面研发工作的代理，令人惊讶地发现，硅，Cu（in Ga）SE2（ga）SE2（CIGSE），CDTE和HALIDE PEROVSKITE技术基本上遵循的是，在10,000个出版物内的20-24％的学习曲线基本上相同，并且在10,000个出版物中的效率不断增长，并且每5％的Marginal Marginal效率增加了5％的效率。尽管该指标从非PV技术中学习溢出，其他PV技术的交叉授粉以及隐藏的商业努力，但该分析仍然可以对PV技术轨迹产生有用的新见解。在此学习曲线下方的轨迹下，每个绩效都需要更多的总努力，并且在大量出版物上的效率停滞平台可能表明（但不能保证）存在商业上相关性能的基本障碍。最后，确定了目前显示出较高边缘斜率的技术，其中有一些示例，其中包括过去几年该指标上似乎处于休眠状态的一些示例。
Frequently, trends in record AM1.5 power-conversion efficiencies versus time, such as the NREL efficiency chart, are used to analyze the relative merits of different photovoltaic material technologies. However, this approach belies the effort expended in achieving these levels of performance. We introduce cumulative publications as a proxy for total R&D efforts and find surprisingly that silicon, Cu(In,Ga)Se2 (CIGSe), CdTe, and halide perovskite technologies have each followed essentially the same learning curve of 20-24% efficiency within 10,000 publications and a consistent marginal rate of 5% efficiency increase per factor of 10 in publications. While learning spillover from non-PV technologies, cross-pollination from other PV technologies, and hidden commercial effort are not accounted for by this metric, this analysis still yields useful and novel insights into PV technology trajectories. Trajectories below this learning curve have required more total effort per performance and plateaus of efficiency stagnation at large numbers of publications may indicate (but do not guarantee) the existence of fundamental barriers to commercially relevant performance. Lastly, examples to watch are identified for technologies currently exhibiting higher marginal slopes, including some that appeared dormant by this metric in past years.
