论文标题
后验概率:非单调性,渐近率,对数洞穴和Turán的不平等
Posterior Probabilities: Nonmonotonicity, Asymptotic Rates, Log-Concavity, and Turán's Inequality
论文作者
论文摘要
在标准的贝叶斯框架中,假设数据由参数空间$θ$中的$θ$参数的分布生成,在此$θ$上给出了先前的分布$π$。贝叶斯统计学家量化了以下信念:鉴于观察到的数据,其后验概率是$θ$中的$θ_{0} $。当数据是在某些参数$θ_{1}中生成的$θ_{0} $的后验信仰的行为的行为数据顺序到达时。虽然$θ_{0} $ - 后验在单调上增加(即,当数据是在相同的$θ_{0} $下生成的)时,当数据在总体上不需要单调下降,而在整体预期的情况下,在整个情况下,在$θ_的情况下,$ the的情况下,它也不是在整体上产生的。当IID硬币扔。当数据来自分布的广泛类别时,我们会获得精确的渐近率;这些费率特别表明,$θ_{0} $的期望在$θ_{1} \neqθ_{0} $下的后验最终严格减少。最后,我们表明,在许多有趣的情况下,这种期望是样本量的对数凸函数,因此是单峰的。在伯努利案件中,我们通过开发与图恩(Legendre)多项式不平等相关的不平等现象来获得这一点。
In the standard Bayesian framework data are assumed to be generated by a distribution parametrized by $θ$ in a parameter space $Θ$, over which a prior distribution $π$ is given. A Bayesian statistician quantifies the belief that the true parameter is $θ_{0}$ in $Θ$ by its posterior probability given the observed data. We investigate the behavior of the posterior belief in $θ_{0}$ when the data are generated under some parameter $θ_{1},$ which may or may not be the same as $θ_{0}.$ Starting from stochastic orders, specifically, likelihood ratio dominance, that obtain for resulting distributions of posteriors, we consider monotonicity properties of the posterior probabilities as a function of the sample size when data arrive sequentially. While the $θ_{0}$-posterior is monotonically increasing (i.e., it is a submartingale) when the data are generated under that same $θ_{0}$, it need not be monotonically decreasing in general, not even in terms of its overall expectation, when the data are generated under a different $θ_{1}.$ In fact, it may keep going up and down many times, even in simple cases such as iid coin tosses. We obtain precise asymptotic rates when the data come from the wide class of exponential families of distributions; these rates imply in particular that the expectation of the $θ_{0}$-posterior under $θ_{1}\neqθ_{0}$ is eventually strictly decreasing. Finally, we show that in a number of interesting cases this expectation is a log-concave function of the sample size, and thus unimodal. In the Bernoulli case we obtain this by developing an inequality that is related to Turán's inequality for Legendre polynomials.