论文标题
线性高斯州空间模型中的图形推断
Graphical Inference in Linear-Gaussian State-Space Models
论文作者
论文摘要
状态空间模型(SSM)是描述无数信号处理应用程序(例如遥感,网络,生物医学和财务)中的时变复杂系统的中心。当已知模型参数已知时,SSM中的推论和预测是可能的,这很少是这种情况。这些参数的估计是至关重要的,不仅对于进行统计分析,而且对于发现复杂现象的基本结构。在本文中,我们专注于线性高斯模型,可以说是最著名的SSM,尤其是在估算多个多变量状态进化中马尔可夫依赖性的过渡矩阵的挑战性任务中。我们通过将此矩阵与有向图的邻接矩阵联系起来,从而介绍了一种新的观点,该矩阵在Granger-Chusality意义上也被解释为状态维度之间的因果关系。从这个角度来看,我们提出了一种新方法,基于听起来良好的期望最大化(EM)方法,用于通过观察到的数据的平滑/过滤共同推断过渡矩阵。我们提出了一个先进的凸优化求解器,该求解器依靠基于共识的近端分裂策略的实现来解决M-step。这种方法可以在图形结构上进行各种复杂的先验的高效处理,例如简约约束,同时受益于收敛保证。我们通过两组数字示例来证明良好的性能和可解释结果。
State-space models (SSM) are central to describe time-varying complex systems in countless signal processing applications such as remote sensing, networks, biomedicine, and finance to name a few. Inference and prediction in SSMs are possible when the model parameters are known, which is rarely the case. The estimation of these parameters is crucial, not only for performing statistical analysis, but also for uncovering the underlying structure of complex phenomena. In this paper, we focus on the linear-Gaussian model, arguably the most celebrated SSM, and particularly in the challenging task of estimating the transition matrix that encodes the Markovian dependencies in the evolution of the multi-variate state. We introduce a novel perspective by relating this matrix to the adjacency matrix of a directed graph, also interpreted as the causal relationship among state dimensions in the Granger-causality sense. Under this perspective, we propose a new method called GraphEM based on the well sounded expectation-maximization (EM) methodology for inferring the transition matrix jointly with the smoothing/filtering of the observed data. We propose an advanced convex optimization solver relying on a consensus-based implementation of a proximal splitting strategy for solving the M-step. This approach enables an efficient and versatile processing of various sophisticated priors on the graph structure, such as parsimony constraints, while benefiting from convergence guarantees. We demonstrate the good performance and the interpretable results of GraphEM by means of two sets of numerical examples.