论文标题
网络分析和欧元区贸易失衡
Network analysis and Eurozone trade imbalances
论文作者
论文摘要
欧洲货币联盟继续以宏观经济失衡的重大特征。德国表明，以其他成员国（尤其是欧洲外围）为代价的经常账户盈余增加。由于单一货币的创建意味着无法实施竞争性贬值，因此货币联盟内部的贸易失衡可以视为不公平的行为。我们已经通过1995年至2019年的加权网络对欧元区贸易流进行建模。据我们所知，这是将这种方法应用于此类数据的第一项工作。网络分析使我们能够估算一系列重要的中心度度量。两极分化现象与德国统治的增长有关。那时，普通货币无法消除贸易不对称性，从而增加了盈余和赤字国家之间的距离。这种情况应在国家和超级层面的需求方面的扩张政策来解决。
European Monetary Union continues to be characterised by significant macroeconomic imbalances. Germany has shown increasing current account surpluses at the expense of the other member states (especially the European periphery). Since the creation of a single currency has implied the impossibility of implementing competitive devaluations, trade imbalances within a monetary union can be considered unfair behaviour. We have modelled Eurozone trade flows in goods through a weighted network from 1995 to 2019. To the best of our knowledge, this is the first work that applies this methodology to this kind of data. Network analysis has allowed us to estimate a series of important centrality measures. A polarisation phenomenon emerges in relation to the growth of German dominance. The common currency has then not been capable to remove trade asymmetry, increasing the distance between surplus and deficit countries. This situation should be addressed with expansionary policies on the demand side at national and supranational level.
