论文标题
评估城市铁路运输系统的动态脆弱性和中国北京的案例研究
Assessing the dynamic vulnerability of an urban rail transit system and a case study of Beijing, China
论文作者
论文摘要
城市铁路运输是城市运输的骨干,因此,了解其脆弱性,即,在面对不同幅度的操作障碍时,该系统是否仍可以保持正常操作。为此,本文提出了一种网络漏洞评估方法,并联合考虑静态网络拓扑和动态旅行需求。该方法包括基于随时间变化的乘客需求以及新的动态漏洞评估指数的基于可访问性的识别。以中国北京的铁路运输系统为例,进行了经验分析。结果表明,高重要站的分布随一天中的时间而变化,受静态拓扑和每小时改变的乘客流量的影响。在操作延迟的干扰下,高重要站对网络脆弱性的影响随着延迟旅行需求的增加而变化。还发现,一些用作桥梁的站(即,合理的路径连接起点站和目的地),并且大型乘客流访问了对网络脆弱性的影响最大。在间隔连续故障的情况下,明显对网络性能降解进行了分割和分层。不同线路之间的破坏是系统性能下降的主要原因,该线路内的一些重要站点将充当加速性能降解的催化剂。该方法提供了用于测量动态乘客流动相关网络漏洞的参考,并为该领域提供新的漏洞评估指数。
Urban rail transit is the backbone of urban transportation, and thus it is significant to understand its vulnerability, i.e., whether the system can still maintain normal operations when facing operational disturbances with different magnitudes. To this end, this paper proposes a network vulnerability assessment method with the joint consideration of static network topology and dynamic travel demand. The method includes an accessibility-based identification of station importance with time-varying passenger demand and a new dynamic vulnerability evaluation index. An empirical analysis is carried out by taking the rail transit system of Beijing, China as an example. Results show that the distribution of high-importance stations varies with the time of day, affected by both static topology and hourly-changing passenger flow. Under the disturbance of operation delay, the impact of high-importance stations on the network vulnerability changes with the increase of delayed travel demand. It is also found that some stations that serve as bridges (i.e., reasonable paths link the origin station and destination) and are visited by large passenger flow have the greatest impact on network vulnerability. Network performance degradation is obviously segmented and stratified in the case of interval continuous failure. The disruption between different lines is the main reason for system performance degradation, and some important stations within the line will act as catalysts to accelerate the performance degradation. This method provides a reference for measuring dynamic passenger flow-related network vulnerability and supplies the field with a new vulnerability evaluation index.