论文标题
政治领导人的注意力转移：两个世纪总统演讲的证据
The Shifting Attention of Political Leaders: Evidence from Two Centuries of Presidential Speeches
论文作者
论文摘要
我们在来自十个拉丁美洲国家的900多个总统演讲的新数据集中使用自然语言处理算法，这些算法跨越了两个世纪，以研究总统政策优先事项的动态和决定因素。我们表明，大多数语音内容的特征是一组紧凑的政策问题，其相对组成在1819 - 2022年间表现出缓慢而实质性的转变。总统的关注最初集中于军事干预和国家能力的发展。注意力通过投资基础设施和公共服务的投资逐渐发展为建立物理资本，并最终通过对教育，健康和社会安全网的投资来建立人力资本。我们描述了总统级特征（例如年龄和性别）预测主要政策问题的方式。我们的发现提供了对总统关注的动态及其塑造因素的动态的新见解，从而扩展了我们对制定政治议程的理解。
We use natural-language-processing algorithms on a novel dataset of over 900 presidential speeches from ten Latin American countries spanning two centuries to study the dynamics and determinants of presidential policy priorities. We show that most speech content can be characterized by a compact set of policy issues whose relative composition exhibited slow yet substantial shifts over 1819-2022. Presidential attention initially centered on military interventions and the development of state capacity. Attention gradually evolved towards building physical capital through investments in infrastructure and public services and finally turned towards building human capital through investments in education, health, and social safety nets. We characterize the way in which president-level characteristics, like age and gender, predict the main policy issues. Our findings offer novel insights into the dynamics of presidential attention and the factors that shape it, expanding our understanding of political agenda-setting.
