论文标题
损失的几何和计算
The Geometry and Calculus of Losses
论文作者
论文摘要
统计决策问题是统计机器学习的核心。最简单的问题是二进制和多类分类以及类概率估计。定义的核心是损失函数的选择,这是评估解决方案质量的手段。在本文中,我们从一个新的角度从基本的成分是具有特定结构的凸集,从而系统地发展了此类问题的损失函数理论。损耗函数定义为凸集的支持函数的子级别。因此,它是自动正确的(校准以估计概率)。这种观点提供了三个新颖的机会。它可以发展损失与(反)纳尔之间的基本关系,这些关系似乎以前从未注意到。其次,它可以开发由凸集的计算引起的损失的演算,从而可以在不同的损失之间进行插值,因此是针对特定问题量身定制损失的潜在有用设计工具。在此过程中,我们基于$ m $ sums的凸套装,并大大扩展了现有结果。第三,透视图导致了``极''损失函数的自然理论,该理论源自凸集的极性二元,定义了损失,并且构成了VOVK聚集算法的自然通用替代函数。
Statistical decision problems lie at the heart of statistical machine learning. The simplest problems are binary and multiclass classification and class probability estimation. Central to their definition is the choice of loss function, which is the means by which the quality of a solution is evaluated. In this paper we systematically develop the theory of loss functions for such problems from a novel perspective whose basic ingredients are convex sets with a particular structure. The loss function is defined as the subgradient of the support function of the convex set. It is consequently automatically proper (calibrated for probability estimation). This perspective provides three novel opportunities. It enables the development of a fundamental relationship between losses and (anti)-norms that appears to have not been noticed before. Second, it enables the development of a calculus of losses induced by the calculus of convex sets which allows the interpolation between different losses, and thus is a potential useful design tool for tailoring losses to particular problems. In doing this we build upon, and considerably extend existing results on $M$-sums of convex sets. Third, the perspective leads to a natural theory of ``polar'' loss functions, which are derived from the polar dual of the convex set defining the loss, and which form a natural universal substitution function for Vovk's aggregating algorithm.