论文标题
康涅狄格州重新划分分析
Connecticut Redistricting Analysis
论文作者
论文摘要
康涅狄格州于2021年11月18日通过了他们的新州众议院区计划，并于2021年11月23日通过了新的参议院区计划。每人在9人的双党重新分配委员会中都一致通过；但是，该过程受到了立法者的控制以及为保护现任者而言的谈判。本文研究了新的大会图中现有保护的程度，同时还提供了有关新地区的摘要数据。通过区域边界的位置，合奏分析（使用MCMC方法）来确定现任者的保护是否构成统计分离，并通过调查竞争性地区的变化来分析新地区对现任者的影响。
Connecticut passed their new state House of Representatives district plan on November 18, 2021 and passed their new state Senate district plan on November 23, 2021. Each passed unanimously in their 9-person bipartisan Reapportionment Commission; however, the process has been criticized for legislators controlling the process and for the negotiations that serve to protect incumbents. This paper investigates the extent of incumbent protection in the new Assembly maps while also providing summary data on the new districts. The impact of new districts on incumbents is analyzed through the location of district borders, an ensemble analysis (using MCMC methods) to determine if the protection of incumbents constitutes a statistical outlier, and by investigating changes to competitive districts.
