论文标题
时尚在不断变化的世界中的出现
The Emergence of Fads in a Changing World
论文作者
论文摘要
我们研究在不断变化的环境中如何在社会学习下出现时尚。我们考虑了一个简单的顺序社会学习模型，其中理性代理人只能行动一次，而潜在的未知状态不断发展。每个代理都会收到一个私人信号，观察他人过去的所有动作，并选择一个匹配当前状态的动作。由于国家随着时间的变化而变化，因此级联不能永远持续下去，行动也会波动。我们表明，尽管临时信息级联的兴起，但从长远来看，动作的变化频率比州更频繁。这一结果为前沿行为提供了理论基础，在这种行为中，人们经常比必要的更频繁地改变自己的行动。
We study how fads emerge under social learning in a changing environment. We consider a simple sequential social learning model where rational agents arrive in order, each acting only once, and the underlying unknown state constantly evolves. Each agent receives a private signal, observes all past actions of others, and chooses an action to match the current state. Because the state changes over time, cascades cannot last forever, and actions also fluctuate. We show that despite the rise of temporary information cascades, in the long run, actions change more often than the state. This result provides a theoretical foundation for faddish behavior in which people often change their actions more frequently than necessary.
