论文标题
电力传输系统针对台风灾难的弹性评估和改进：数据模型混合动力驱动方法
Resilience assessment and improvement for electric power transmission systems against typhoon disasters: A data-model hybrid driven approach
论文作者
论文摘要
为了响应沿海地区台风灾难造成的电力传输系统的损害，建立了一个计划定位的弹性评估框架，该框架考虑了多种因素的影响，以准确地找到传输系统的薄弱环节并改善系统的弹性。首先，本文构建了风场的衰减模型和系统的综合故障模型，在该模型中采用了模型驱动器以建立传输系统的累积故障模型，并通过依靠传输系统的特征因素信息来纠正多个数据驱动的方案来纠正累积故障率。同时，引入了分析性层次结构加权平均（AHP-WAA）方法，以选择最佳数据驱动的评估方案。其次，本文采用了基于影响的国家枚举（IISE）方法来分别建立对系统和走廊的弹性指标。在此基础上，根据建筑难度，弹性提高能力和成本分析选择最佳促进策略。最后，考虑到真正的台风场景，微图和传输走廊信息因素的影响，已经对IEEE RTS-79系统进行了模拟。结果表明，混合驱动的系统弹性评估和改进方法可以帮助计划者准确地判断系统的弹性水平，以防止台风灾难，并根据成本效益比选择最佳的弹性改进策略。
In response to the damage to electric power transmission systems caused by typhoon disasters in coastal areas, a planning-targeted resilience assessment framework that considers the impact of multiple factors is established to accurately find the weak links of the transmission system and improve the system resilience. Firstly, this paper constructs the attenuation model of the wind field and the comprehensive failure model of the system, in which the model drive to establish the cumulative failure model of the transmission system is adopted, and multiple data-driven schemes to correct the cumulative failure rate by relying on the feature factor information of the transmission system is adopted. At the same time, an analytic hierarchy process-weighted arithmetic averaging (AHP-WAA) method is introduced to select the optimal data-driven evaluation scheme. Secondly, this paper adopts the impact-increment-based state enumeration (IISE) method to establish resilience indicators for systems and corridors separately. On this basis, the optimal promotion strategy is selected according to the construction difficulty, resilience improvement ability, and cost analysis. Finally, simulations on the IEEE RTS-79 system have been carried out considering the influence of the real typhoon scenarios, micro-topographic and transmission corridor information factors. The results demonstrate that the hybrid-driven system resilience assessment and improvement method can assist planners in accurately judging the resilience level of the system against typhoon disasters and selecting the best resilience improvement strategy based on the cost-effectiveness ratio.
