论文标题
基于深度学习的离散校准生存预测
Deep Learning-Based Discrete Calibrated Survival Prediction
论文作者
论文摘要
用于生存预测的深层神经网络在歧视中超过了经典方法,这是患者根据事件的秩序。相反,诸如COX比例危害模型之类的经典方法显示出更好的校准,是基础分布事件的正确时间预测。特别是在医学领域,在预测单个患者的存活至关重要的情况下,歧视和校准都是重要的绩效指标。在这里,我们提出了离散的校准生存(DC),这是一个新型的深层神经网络,用于歧视和校准的生存预测,在三个医疗数据集上的歧视中优于竞争生存模型,同时在所有离散时间模型中实现最佳校准。 DC的增强性能可以归因于两个新型特征,即变量的时间输出节点间距和新颖的损耗项,可优化未经审查和审查的患者数据的使用。我们认为,DCS是通过最新的歧视和良好校准的基于深度学习的生存预测临床应用的重要一步。
Deep neural networks for survival prediction outper-form classical approaches in discrimination, which is the ordering of patients according to their time-of-event. Conversely, classical approaches like the Cox Proportional Hazards model display much better calibration, the correct temporal prediction of events of the underlying distribution. Especially in the medical domain, where it is critical to predict the survival of a single patient, both discrimination and calibration are important performance metrics. Here we present Discrete Calibrated Survival (DCS), a novel deep neural network for discriminated and calibrated survival prediction that outperforms competing survival models in discrimination on three medical datasets, while achieving best calibration among all discrete time models. The enhanced performance of DCS can be attributed to two novel features, the variable temporal output node spacing and the novel loss term that optimizes the use of uncensored and censored patient data. We believe that DCS is an important step towards clinical application of deep-learning-based survival prediction with state-of-the-art discrimination and good calibration.