论文标题
扩展强大的PCE通胀度量的范围
Extending the Range of Robust PCE Inflation Measures
论文作者
论文摘要
强劲的通货膨胀通过排除标题通货膨胀的挥发性支出类别来衡量量规通胀行为。我们评估了1970年至2024年之间各种此类措施的预测性能，包括核心，中位数和修剪的平均个人消费量（PCE）通胀。核心通货膨胀的性能明显比官方中位数和修剪平均通货膨胀率差得多。在一组替代修剪的平均度量中，基于预测性能没有单一的最佳装饰：一组宽的装饰会产生统计上无法区分的平均误差。但是，不同的装饰意味着在任何给定月份的趋势通货膨胀率在0.5到1个百分点的范围内都有不同的预测。在跟踪趋势通货膨胀时，该范围及其中点的表现优于所有修剪的平均通胀度量，这表明使用了一组近乎最佳的装饰物所隐含的通货膨胀范围作为对任何单个通货膨胀量的有价值的补充。
Robust inflation measures gauge inflation behavior by excluding volatile expenditure categories from headline inflation. We evaluate the forecasting performance of a wide set of such measures between 1970 and 2024, including core, median, and trimmed mean personal-consumption-expenditure (PCE) inflation. Core inflation performs significantly worse than official median and trimmed mean inflation. Among a set of alternative trimmed mean measures, there is no single best trim based on forecasting performance: A wide set of trims generates statistically indistinguishable average errors. Nonetheless, different trims imply different predictions for trend inflation in any given month, within a range of 0.5 to 1 percentage points. In tracking trend inflation, this range and its midpoint outperform all trimmed mean inflation measures, suggesting the use of the range of inflation implied by the set of near-optimal trims as a valuable complement to any single inflation measure.
