论文标题
COVID-19的严格基线预测和ML对美国和俄罗斯的观点
Strict baselines for Covid-19 forecasting and ML perspective for USA and Russia
论文作者
论文摘要
目前，Covid-19的演变使研究人员可以收集2年内积累的数据集并将其用于预测分析。反过来，这可以评估更复杂的预测模型的效率潜力，包括具有不同预测范围的神经网络。在本文中，我们介绍了基于两个国家的区域数据：美国和俄罗斯的区域数据，对不同类型的方法进行了一致的比较研究的结果。我们使用了众所周知的统计方法（例如，指数平滑），一种“明天”方法，以及一套经过来自各个地区数据的经典机器学习模型。与他们一起，考虑了基于长期记忆（LSTM）层的神经网络模型，这些培训样本的培训样本汇总了来自两个国家的所有地区：美国和俄罗斯。根据MAPE度量，使用交叉验证进行效率评估。结果表明，对于以确认的每日案件数量的大量增加的复杂时期，在两个国家的所有地区训练的LSTM模型都显示了最佳结果，显示了俄罗斯的平均平均绝对百分比误差（MAPE）为18％，30％，37％，31％，31％，31％，41％，41％，41％，50％的预测，以预测为14，28天和42天的预测。
Currently, the evolution of Covid-19 allows researchers to gather the datasets accumulated over 2 years and to use them in predictive analysis. In turn, this makes it possible to assess the efficiency potential of more complex predictive models, including neural networks with different forecast horizons. In this paper, we present the results of a consistent comparative study of different types of methods for predicting the dynamics of the spread of Covid-19 based on regional data for two countries: the United States and Russia. We used well-known statistical methods (e.g., Exponential Smoothing), a "tomorrow-as-today" approach, as well as a set of classic machine learning models trained on data from individual regions. Along with them, a neural network model based on Long short-term memory (LSTM) layers was considered, the training samples of which aggregate data from all regions of two countries: the United States and Russia. Efficiency evaluation was carried out using cross-validation according to the MAPE metric. It is shown that for complicated periods characterized by a large increase in the number of confirmed daily cases, the best results are shown by the LSTM model trained on all regions of both countries, showing an average Mean Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE) of 18%, 30%, 37% for Russia and 31%, 41%, 50% for US for predictions at forecast horizons of 14, 28, and 42 days, respectively.
