论文标题

气候响应和敏感性:时间标准和晚临界点

Climate Response and Sensitivity: Timescales and Late Tipping Points

论文作者

Bastiaansen, Robbin, Ashwin, Peter, von der Heydt, Anna S.

论文摘要

气候反应指标用于量化地球对大气CO2人为变化的气候反应。均衡气候灵敏度(ECS)是一种标准,可测量对二氧化碳的平衡响应加倍。然而,在估计和使用中,这种指标都对气候反应的线性进行了假设,尽管众所周知,尤其是对于较大的强迫水平,响应可能是非线性的。这种非线性响应可能会立即响应较大的扰动而立即可见,或者只有在长期瞬态之后才能显而易见。在本文中,我们说明了从瞬态模拟估算EC时的一些潜在问题和警告。我们强调的方式表明,即使在中等时间尺度上,线性响应似乎很合适,因此时间尺度非常缓慢的时间尺度可能会导致EC的估计差。此外,这种缓慢的时间尺度可能会导致与系统非线性相关的迟到的突然反应(“后期临界点”)。我们使用动态反照率上的全球能量平衡模型上的模拟来说明这些想法。我们还讨论了估计全球气候模型EC的含义,强调说,就达到平衡所需的模拟时间做出确定的陈述可能仍然很难。

Climate response metrics are used to quantify the Earth's climate response to anthropogenic changes of atmospheric CO2. Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS) is one such metric that measures the equilibrium response to CO2 doubling. However, both in their estimation and their usage, such metrics make assumptions on the linearity of climate response, although it is known that, especially for larger forcing levels, response can be nonlinear. Such nonlinear responses may become visible immediately in response to a larger perturbation, or may only become apparent after a long transient. In this paper, we illustrate some potential problems and caveats when estimating ECS from transient simulations. We highlight ways that very slow timescales may lead to poor estimation of ECS even if there is seemingly good fit to linear response over moderate timescales. Moreover, such slow timescale might lead to late abrupt responses ("late tipping points") associated with a system's nonlinearities. We illustrate these ideas using simulations on a global energy balance model with dynamic albedo. We also discuss the implications for estimating ECS for global climate models, highlighting that it is likely to remain difficult to make definitive statements about the simulation times needed to reach an equilibrium.

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