论文标题
优化芬兰大肠癌筛查计划的决策计划
Decision Programming for optimizing the Finnish Colorectal Cancer Screening Program
论文作者
论文摘要
在芬兰结直肠癌（CRC）中，发病率在过去几十年中稳步上升，截至2017年，CRC是第六大死亡原因。 CRC是芬兰公共卫生的关键问题。我们优化了针对特定目标人群的粪便免疫化学测试（FIT）截止水平，以最大程度地减少癌症患病率，这是解决不确定性下的离散多阶段决策问题的一种新型方法。结果表明，具有不同结肠镜检查能力限制的芬兰目标群的最佳截止水平。最后，估计的癌症患病率，所需的结肠镜检查的数量和第三方付款人的成本是从发现的策略到新实施的芬兰CRC筛查计划的，这些计划尚未发表。
In Finland colorectal cancer (CRC) incidence rates have steadily increased over the last decades and as of 2017, CRC is the sixth most common cause of death. CRC is a crucial concern for the public health of Finland. We optimize the faecal immunochemical test (FIT) cut-off level for specified target populations with regard to minimization of cancer prevalence with Decision Programming, which is a novel approach to solving discrete multi-stage decision problems under uncertainty. The results present optimal cut-off levels for Finnish target groups with different colonoscopy capacity constraints. Finally, the estimated resulting cancer prevalence, the amount of required colonoscopies and third-party payer costs resulting from found strategies to the newly implemented Finnish CRC Screening Programme, which have not previously been published, are presented.
