论文标题
距离的时变成本：远处疲劳和锁定
Time-varying Cost of Distancing: Distancing Fatigue and Lockdowns
论文作者
论文摘要
我们研究一个行为先生模型，其距离成本不断变化。我们探索的距离成本变化的两个主要原因是疏远疲劳和公共政策（锁定）。我们表明，对于出现的第二波流行病，距离成本急剧增加。远处的疲劳不能使距离成本足够快地增加以创建第二波。但是，不连续影响距离成本的公共政策可能会造成第二波。考虑到这一点，我们表征了距离成本的最大变化（例如，由于提升公共政策）不会引起第二波。最后，我们对远距离疲劳的公共政策进行了数值分析，并表明在流行病开始时严格封锁（例如，最近在中国）可能会导致意外的不利后果。当该政策被解除时，由于个体累积的远处疲劳，导致高患病率水平，疾病的扩散很快。
We study a behavioral SIR model with time-varying costs of distancing. The two main causes of the variation in the cost of distancing we explore are distancing fatigue and public policies (lockdowns). We show that for a second wave of an epidemic to arise, a steep increase in distancing cost is necessary. Distancing fatigue cannot increase the distancing cost sufficiently fast to create a second wave. However, public policies that discontinuously affect the distancing cost can create a second wave. With that in mind, we characterize the largest change in the distancing cost (due to, for example, lifting a public policy) that will not cause a second wave. Finally, we provide a numerical analysis of public policies under distancing fatigue and show that a strict lockdown at the beginning of an epidemic (as, for example, recently in China) can lead to unintended adverse consequences. When the policy is lifted the disease spreads very fast due to the accumulated distancing fatigue of the individuals causing high prevalence levels.
