论文标题
一种自治，自我调节的系统，用于评估科学预测能力
A self-governing, self-regulating system for assessing scientific predictive power
论文作者
论文摘要
我提出了一种使用为该目的设计的预测共识算法来跟踪和评估科学进步的方法。该协议消除了集中裁判的需求，以引起科学问题，收集预测并评估这些预测的准确性或成功。相反，它依靠人群智慧以及所有任务的制衡系统。它旨在采用基于Web的可搜索数据库的形式。我描述了我称之为Quaerum的原型实现。本文档的主要目的是激励项目，解释其基本理念，解释其所基于的共识协议的细节，描述其未来发展计划，并最终吸引其他合作者。
I propose a method for tracking and assessing scientific progress using a prediction consensus algorithm designed for the purpose. The protocol obviates the need for centralized referees to generate scientific questions, gather predictions, and assess the accuracy or success of those predictions. It relies instead on crowd wisdom and a system of checks and balances for all tasks. It is intended to take the form of a web-based, searchable database. I describe a prototype implementation that I call Ex Quaerum. The main purpose of the present document is to motivate the project, to explain its underlying philosophy, to explain the details of the consensus protocol on which it is based, to describe plans for its future development, and ultimately to attract additional collaborators.
