论文标题
使用贝叶斯近似的行人未来轨迹的不确定性估计
Uncertainty estimation of pedestrian future trajectory using Bayesian approximation
论文作者
论文摘要
过去对行人轨迹预测的研究主要集中在确定性预测上,这些预测仅提供未来状态的点估计。这些未来的估计值可以帮助自动驾驶汽车计划其轨迹并避免碰撞。但是,在动态的交通情况下,基于确定性预测的计划并不值得信赖。相反,估计与预测状态具有一定信心的不确定性可能会导致坚固的路径计划。因此,作者建议使用确定性方法无法捕获的随机近似过程中量化预测期间的这种不确定性。当前方法很简单,并在推断标准神经网络体系结构中应用贝叶斯近似来估计不确定性。作者将概率神经网络(NN)模型之间的预测与标准确定性模型进行了比较。结果表明,与确定性预测相比,概率模型的平均预测路径更接近地面真相。此外,已经研究了体重随机辍学和长期预测对未来状态不确定性的影响。发现概率模型产生了更好的性能指标,例如平均位移误差(ADE)和最终位移误差(FDE)。最后,该研究已扩展到多个数据集,为每个模型提供了全面的比较。
Past research on pedestrian trajectory forecasting mainly focused on deterministic predictions which provide only point estimates of future states. These future estimates can help an autonomous vehicle plan its trajectory and avoid collision. However, under dynamic traffic scenarios, planning based on deterministic predictions is not trustworthy. Rather, estimating the uncertainty associated with the predicted states with a certain level of confidence can lead to robust path planning. Hence, the authors propose to quantify this uncertainty during forecasting using stochastic approximation which deterministic approaches fail to capture. The current method is simple and applies Bayesian approximation during inference to standard neural network architectures for estimating uncertainty. The authors compared the predictions between the probabilistic neural network (NN) models with the standard deterministic models. The results indicate that the mean predicted path of probabilistic models was closer to the ground truth when compared with the deterministic prediction. Further, the effect of stochastic dropout of weights and long-term prediction on future state uncertainty has been studied. It was found that the probabilistic models produced better performance metrics like average displacement error (ADE) and final displacement error (FDE). Finally, the study has been extended to multiple datasets providing a comprehensive comparison for each model.