论文标题
发展中国家正式和非正式信贷市场的经验平衡模型
An empirical equilibrium model of formal and informal credit markets in developing countries
论文作者
论文摘要
我开发并估算了风险企业家的借贷和储蓄决策的动态平衡模型，该模型纳入了正式和本地信贷市场。家庭可以进入外源性正式信贷市场，并获得非正式信贷市场，在该信贷市场中，利率由当地的需求和信贷供应来内源性确定。我在正式的信贷市场扩张情节中使用泰国乡村数据通过模拟最大似然估计模型。我的估计表明，固定成本的49％降低了49％，将正式借贷的家庭比例提高了36％，而抵押借贷限额的加倍将非正式利率降低了24％。我发现，富有生产力的家庭受益于扩大借贷访问权限的政策，但由于储蓄机会减少，生产力较低的家庭在福利方面丧失。总体而言，收益比不考虑非正式信贷市场的模型所预测的要小。
I develop and estimate a dynamic equilibrium model of risky entrepreneurs' borrowing and savings decisions incorporating both formal and local-informal credit markets. Households have access to an exogenous formal credit market and to an informal credit market in which the interest rate is endogenously determined by the local demand and supply of credit. I estimate the model via Simulated Maximum Likelihood using Thai village data during an episode of formal credit market expansion. My estimates suggest that a 49 percent reduction in fixed costs increased the proportion of households borrowing formally by 36 percent, and that a doubling of the collateralized borrowing limits lowered informal interest rates by 24 percent. I find that more productive households benefited from the policies that expanded borrowing access, but less productive households lost in terms of welfare due to diminished savings opportunities. Gains are overall smaller than would be predicted by models that do not consider the informal credit market.
