论文标题

使用Shapley分解来解释信用决策中的不良行动

Explaining Adverse Actions in Credit Decisions Using Shapley Decomposition

论文作者

Nair, Vijayan N., Feng, Tianshu, Hu, Linwei, Zhang, Zach, Chen, Jie, Sudjianto, Agus

论文摘要

当金融机构拒绝信贷申请时,据说会发生不利诉讼(AA)。然后,申请人有权解释负面决定。本文着重于基于违约概率的预测模型的信用决策,并提出了AA解释的方法。该问题涉及确定负责负面决策的重要预测因素,并且在基础模型是加性时很简单。但是,即使对于具有相互作用的线性模型,它也会变得不平凡。我们考虑具有低阶相互作用的模型,并基于第一原理开发一种简单而直观的方法。然后,我们展示了该方法如何推广到众所周知的外形分解以及最近提出的基线莎普利(B-shap)的概念。与文献中有关机器学习结果的局部解释性的其他Shapley技术不同,B-Shap在计算上是可拖延的,因为它涉及公正的功能评估。说明性案例研究用于证明该方法的有用性。本文还讨论了具有高度相关的预测指标和拟合模型的理想特性的情况,例如单调性和连续性。

When a financial institution declines an application for credit, an adverse action (AA) is said to occur. The applicant is then entitled to an explanation for the negative decision. This paper focuses on credit decisions based on a predictive model for probability of default and proposes a methodology for AA explanation. The problem involves identifying the important predictors responsible for the negative decision and is straightforward when the underlying model is additive. However, it becomes non-trivial even for linear models with interactions. We consider models with low-order interactions and develop a simple and intuitive approach based on first principles. We then show how the methodology generalizes to the well-known Shapely decomposition and the recently proposed concept of Baseline Shapley (B-Shap). Unlike other Shapley techniques in the literature for local interpretability of machine learning results, B-Shap is computationally tractable since it involves just function evaluations. An illustrative case study is used to demonstrate the usefulness of the method. The paper also discusses situations with highly correlated predictors and desirable properties of fitted models in the credit-lending context, such as monotonicity and continuity.

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