论文标题
部分可观测时空混沌系统的无模型预测
Station Reallocation and Rebalancing Strategy for Bike-Sharing Systems: A Case Study of Washington DC
论文作者
论文摘要
储层计算是预测湍流的有力工具,其简单的架构具有处理大型系统的计算效率。然而,其实现通常需要完整的状态向量测量和系统非线性知识。我们使用非线性投影函数将系统测量扩展到高维空间,然后将其输入到储层中以获得预测。我们展示了这种储层计算网络在时空混沌系统上的应用,该系统模拟了湍流的若干特征。我们表明,使用径向基函数作为非线性投影器,即使只有部分观测并且不知道控制方程,也能稳健地捕捉复杂的系统非线性。最后,我们表明,当测量稀疏、不完整且带有噪声,甚至控制方程变得不准确时,我们的网络仍然可以产生相当准确的预测,从而为实际湍流系统的无模型预测铺平了道路。
Bike-sharing is becoming increasingly popular as an urban traffic mode while increasing the affordability, flexibility, and reliability of interconnected public transportation systems (i.e., interconnected light rail, buses, micro-mobility, and ride-sharing modes of transportation). From the consumers perspective, 1) finding a bike station in convenient locations where demand usually occurs and 2) the availability of bikes at rush hours with a lesser probability of encountering empty docks (for fixed-station bike-share systems) are two key concerns. Some stations are more likely to be empty or full, reflecting an imbalance in bike supply and demand. Accordingly, it is essential to understand a bike-share system's demand pattern to select the optimal locations and reallocate bikes to the right stations to increase the utilization rate and reduce the number of unserved customers (i.e., potential demand). The Capital Bikeshare in the Washington DC Metropolitan Area is one of the prominent bike-share systems in the USA - with more than 4,300 bikes available at 654 stations across seven jurisdictions. This study provides a systematic analysis of a bike-sharing system's Capital Bikeshare system usage pattern. Our study intends to create an optimization strategy formulated as a deterministic integer programming for reallocating bike stations daily and rebalancing the bike supply system. From an operational perspective, such a strategy will allow overnight preparations to answer the rush-hour morning demand and during special events in Washington D.C.