论文标题
我们银河系中可能的CETI和这些CETIS中的通信概率
The Number of Possible CETIs within Our Galaxy and the Communication Probability among These CETIs
论文作者
论文摘要
作为唯一已知的智能文明，人类总是对其他交流外星智能文明（CETIS）的存在感到好奇。根据最新的天体物理信息，我们进行了蒙特卡洛模拟，以估计银河系中可能的CETIS及其之间的沟通概率。两个鲜为人知的参数对结果有很大的影响。一种是生命的可能性出现在地面行星上，最终将A演变成CETI（$ f_c $），另一个决定在其主人恒星进化的CETIS CETIS的哪个阶段（$ f $）决定。为了确保模拟的完整性，我们考虑了$ f_c $和$ f $的各种组合。我们的结果表明，对于乐观的情况（例如$ f = 25 \％$和$ f_c = 0.1 \％$），可能有$ 42777 _ { - 369}^{+267} $ CETIS，他们需要以$ 3_ {+17} $ yr（+170} $ yr（+2000} $ 3} $ yr（+2000） YR）实现单向通信（双向通信）。在这种情况下，人类需要存活$ 0.3 _ { - 0.298}^{+0.6} $ MYR才能接收一个外星信号。对于悲观的情况（例如$ f = 75 \％$和$ f_c = 0.001 \％$），只有$ 111 _ { - 17}^{+28} $ CETIS可以生存，他们需要以$ 0.8 _ { - 0.796}^{+1.2} $ 0.2 {+1.2} $ 0.9 $（0.9 $} $ 0.88}^0.88 MYR）实现单向通信（双向通信）。在这种情况下，人类需要生存$ 50 _ { - 49.6}^{+250} $ myr，才能从另一个CETIS接收一个信号。我们的结果可能会定量解释为什么到目前为止我们尚未检测到任何外星人信号。结果的不确定性已详细讨论，并通过进一步提高我们的天文观察能力来缓解。
As the only known intelligent civilization, human beings are always curious about the existence of other communicating extraterrestrial intelligent civilizations (CETIs). Based on the latest astrophysical information, we carry out Monte Carlo simulations to estimate the number of possible CETIs within our Galaxy and the communication probability among them. Two poorly known parameters have a great impact on the results. One is the probability of life appearing on terrestrial planets and eventually evolving a into CETI ($f_c$), and the other determines at what stage of their host star's evolution CETIs would be born ($F$). In order to ensure the completeness of the simulation, we consider a variety of combinations of $f_c$ and $F$. Our results indicate that for optimistic situations (e.g. $F=25\%$ and $f_c=0.1\%$), there could be $42777_{-369}^{+267}$ CETIs and they need to survive for $3_{-2}^{+17}$ yr ($2000_{-1400}^{+2000}$ yr) to achieve one-way communication (two-way communication). In this case, human beings need to survive $0.3_{-0.298}^{+0.6}$ Myr to receive one alien signal. For pessimistic situations (e.g. $F=75\%$ and $f_c=0.001\%$), only $111_{-17}^{+28}$ CETIs could be born and they need to survive for $0.8_{-0.796}^{+1.2}$ Myr ($0.9_{-0.88}^{+4.1}$ Myr) to achieve one-way communication (two-way communication). In this case, human beings need to survive $50_{-49.6}^{+250}$ Myr to receive one signal from other CETIs. Our results may quantitatively explain why we have not detected any alien signals so far. The uncertainty of the results has been discussed in detail and would be alleviated with the further improvement of our astronomical observation ability in the future.
