论文标题
概念化世界地球系统的弹性：探索通往安全且仅仅为人类操作空间的转型途径
Conceptualizing World-Earth System resilience: Exploring transformation pathways towards a safe and just operating space for humanity
论文作者
论文摘要
我们开发了一个框架，在该框架中概念化了世界地球系统的弹性。我们对世界地球系统的韧性的概念强调了需要超越吸引韧性概念的恢复能力概念的必要性，因为我们不在盆地中可以留在一个盆地。我们正处于新的盆地的轨迹，我们必须避免陷入不可避免的盆地。因此，我们专注于“途径弹性”，即，当我们离开全新世盆地到人类世的安全且仅在人类世代的操作空间时，使我们从现在所占据的过渡工作空间移动的相对路径数量。我们开发了一种数学模型来形式化这种概念化，并展示了地球系统弹性（生物物理过程）和世界系统弹性（社会过程）如何影响途径的弹性。我们的发现表明，建立地球系统的弹性可能是我们唯一能够到达安全且仅仅是操作空间的机会。我们还通过展示公平的概念以及区域不平等影响途径的弹性来说明世界系统动态的重要性。
We develop a framework within which to conceptualize World-Earth System resilience. Our notion of World-Earth System resilience emphasizes the need to move beyond the basin of attraction notion of resilience as we are not in a basin we can stay in. We are on a trajectory to a new basin and we have to avoid falling into undesirable basins. We thus focus on `pathway resilience', i.e. the relative number of paths that allow us to move from the transitional operating space we occupy now as we leave the Holocene basin to a safe and just operating space in the Anthropocene. We develop a mathematical model to formalize this conceptualization and demonstrate how interactions between earth system resilience (biophysical processes) and world system resilience (social processes) impact pathway resilience. Our findings show that building earth system resilience is probably our only chance to reach a safe and just operating space. We also illustrate the importance of world system dynamics by showing how the notion of fairness coupled with regional inequality affects pathway resilience.
