论文标题

审查本地和集成的能源系统模型:洞悉灵活性和鲁棒性挑战

Reviewing local and integrated energy system models: insights into flexibility and robustness challenges

论文作者

Kachirayil, Febin, Weinand, Jann Michael, Scheller, Fabian, McKenna, Russell

论文摘要

加热,冷却和运输的电气化以达到脱碳目标,要求快速扩展可再生技术。由于它们的分散性和间歇性,这些技术需要强大的计划,以有效地考虑非技术约束和灵活性选项。能源系统模型(ESM)经常用于在此计划过程中支持决策者。在这项研究中,对116个本地综合ESM的案例研究进行了系统的审查,以识别建模灵活性并解决非技术约束的最佳实践方法。在样本中,存储系统和扇区耦合是最常见的灵活性类型。很少考虑部门与运输部门的连接,特别是与可用于智能充电或车辆到网格操作的电动汽车。社会方面通常被完全忽视或外源建模。缺乏参与者的异质性可以通过建筑级别的信息来解决优化模型的不稳定结果。人们非常重视成本,尽管还经常报道排放,但几乎没有进口或可再生能源产生的其他指标。为了指导未来的建模,该论文以路线图的结论,突出了柔韧性和鲁棒性选项,这些选择代表了低悬垂的水果或对结果产生很大影响。

The electrification of heating, cooling, and transportation to reach decarbonization targets calls for a rapid expansion of renewable technologies. Due to their decentral and intermittent nature, these technologies require robust planning that considers non-technical constraints and flexibility options to be integrated effectively. Energy system models (ESMs) are frequently used to support decision-makers in this planning process. In this study, 116 case studies of local, integrated ESMs are systematically reviewed to identify best-practice approaches to model flexibility and to address non-technical constraints. Within the sample, storage systems and sector coupling are the most common types of flexibility. Sector coupling with the transportation sector, specifically with electric vehicles that could be used for smart charging or vehicle-to-grid operation, is rarely considered. Social aspects are generally either completely neglected or modeled exogenously. Lacking actor heterogeneity, which can lead to unstable results in optimization models, can be addressed through building-level information. A strong emphasis on cost is found and while emissions are also frequently reported, additional metrics such as imports or the share of renewable generation are nearly absent. To guide future modeling, the paper concludes with a roadmap highlighting flexibility and robustness options that either represent low-hanging fruit or have a large impact on results.

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