论文标题
使用转换的内核分数评估高影响事件的预测
Evaluating forecasts for high-impact events using transformed kernel scores
论文作者
论文摘要
评估预报员预测对预测用户产生很大影响的结果的能力是有益的。尽管加权评分规则已成为实现这一目标的公认工具,但在单变量案例中,几乎完全研究了此类分数,并且通常对极端事件产生了兴趣。但是,从统计的角度来看,事件并不是极端的事件也可能引起巨大的影响:几个中等事件的相互作用也可能产生很大的影响。复合天气事件提供了一个很好的例子。为了评估针对高影响事件的预测,这项工作通过引入加权多元分数来扩展加权评分规则的现有结果。为此,我们利用内核分数。我们证明,阈值加权连续排名概率得分(TWCRP),可以说是最著名的加权评分规则,是内核得分。当预测是一个合奏时,该结果会导致TWCRP的方便表示,并且还允许概括可以用替代核进行使用,从而使我们能够引入例如阈值加权能量得分和阈值加权变量图评分。为了说明这些加权多元评分规则提供的其他信息,为案例研究提供了结果,其中使用加权分数来评估每日降水积累预测,对可能导致洪水的事件特别感兴趣。
It is informative to evaluate a forecaster's ability to predict outcomes that have a large impact on the forecast user. Although weighted scoring rules have become a well-established tool to achieve this, such scores have been studied almost exclusively in the univariate case, with interest typically placed on extreme events. However, a large impact may also result from events not considered to be extreme from a statistical perspective: the interaction of several moderate events could also generate a high impact. Compound weather events provide a good example of this. To assess forecasts made for high-impact events, this work extends existing results on weighted scoring rules by introducing weighted multivariate scores. To do so, we utilise kernel scores. We demonstrate that the threshold-weighted continuous ranked probability score (twCRPS), arguably the most well-known weighted scoring rule, is a kernel score. This result leads to a convenient representation of the twCRPS when the forecast is an ensemble, and also permits a generalisation that can be employed with alternative kernels, allowing us to introduce, for example, a threshold-weighted energy score and threshold-weighted variogram score. To illustrate the additional information that these weighted multivariate scoring rules provide, results are presented for a case study in which the weighted scores are used to evaluate daily precipitation accumulation forecasts, with particular interest on events that could lead to flooding.