论文标题
从零智慧到队列反应:高频波动估计和最佳执行的限制顺序簿建模
From Zero-Intelligence to Queue-Reactive: Limit Order Book modeling for high-frequency volatility estimation and optimal execution
论文作者
论文摘要
存在高频数据的波动率的估计受到微观结构噪声的存在困扰,从而导致措施有偏见。替代估计量已经在噪声的特定结构或收敛速度与渐近分布的速度上开发和测试。 Gatheral and Oomen(2010)提议使用限制顺序簿的零智能模型来测试集成方差的几个估计量的有限样本性能。在这种方法的基础上,在本文中,我们介绍了三个主要创新:(i)我们用作数据生成过程的限制订单书的队列反应性模型(Huang等人(2015)),与零智能模型相比,该模型 - 生成更现实的微结构动力学,如下所示,该动力学通过使用Hausman测试所示; (ii)我们不仅考虑综合波动率的估计量,而且考虑点波动率的估计值; (iii)我们在预测模拟VWAP执行成本方差方面的相关性。总体而言,我们发现,对于综合波动率,预估计器优化了估计偏置,而统一和交替估计器会导致最佳的均方误差值。取而代之的是,在斑点波动率的情况下,傅立叶估计器在偏置和均方误差方面都产生最佳精度。后一个估计器也导致了VWAP执行的成本差异的最佳预测。
The estimation of the volatility with high-frequency data is plagued by the presence of microstructure noise, which leads to biased measures. Alternative estimators have been developed and tested either on specific structures of the noise or by the speed of convergence to their asymptotic distributions. Gatheral and Oomen (2010) proposed to use the Zero-Intelligence model of the limit order book to test the finite-sample performance of several estimators of the integrated variance. Building on this approach, in this paper we introduce three main innovations: (i) we use as data-generating process the Queue-Reactive model of the limit order book (Huang et al. (2015)), which - compared to the Zero-Intelligence model - generates more realistic microstructure dynamics, as shown here by using an Hausman test; (ii) we consider not only estimators of the integrated volatility but also of the spot volatility; (iii) we show the relevance of the estimator in the prediction of the variance of the cost of a simulated VWAP execution. Overall we find that, for the integrated volatility, the pre-averaging estimator optimizes the estimation bias, while the unified and the alternation estimator lead to optimal mean squared error values. Instead, in the case of the spot volatility, the Fourier estimator yields the optimal accuracy, both in terms of bias and mean squared error. The latter estimator leads also to the optimal prediction of the cost variance of a VWAP execution.