论文标题
比较美国为季节性流感创建校准合奏预测的组合方法
Comparison of Combination Methods to Create Calibrated Ensemble Forecasts for Seasonal Influenza in the U.S
论文作者
论文摘要
流感季节的特征每年都有很大的差异,这对公共卫生准备和反应构成了挑战。流感预测用于告知季节性暴发反应,这反过来又可以减少流行病的社会影响。美国疾病控制与预防中心与外部研究人员合作,进行了年度前瞻性流感预测活动,称为Flusight挑战。参与团队的一部分已经共同制作了合作的多模型合奏,即Flusight Network Ensemble。将预测文献的理论结果与流感爆发的域特异性预测结合在一起,我们应用了参数预测组合方法,这些方法同时优化了单个模型权重并通过β变换来校准集合。我们使用了Beta转换的线性池和有限的Beta混合模型来回顾性地对美国的2016/2017至2018/2019流感季节回顾性预测,我们将它们的性能与当前在Flusight Challenge中使用的方法进行了比较,即同样重量的线性池和线性线性池。证明了从具有Beta转换的方法产生的合奏预测,表现出胜过同等加权线性池和基于平均日志分数在测试季节中所有周的目标的线性池的合奏预测。我们观察到尽管Beta转换的线性池或Beta混合方法在所有目标和季节中的预测不足,但总体准确性的提高。应考虑针对线性合并中已知校准问题明确调整的组合技术,以改善爆发环境中的集合概率分数。
The characteristics of influenza seasons varies substantially from year to year, posing challenges for public health preparation and response. Influenza forecasting is used to inform seasonal outbreak response, which can in turn potentially reduce the societal impact of an epidemic. The United States Centers for Disease Control and Prevention, in collaboration with external researchers, has run an annual prospective influenza forecasting exercise, known as the FluSight challenge. A subset of participating teams has worked together to produce a collaborative multi-model ensemble, the FluSight Network ensemble. Uniting theoretical results from the forecasting literature with domain-specific forecasts from influenza outbreaks, we applied parametric forecast combination methods that simultaneously optimize individual model weights and calibrate the ensemble via a beta transformation. We used the beta-transformed linear pool and the finite beta mixture model to produce ensemble forecasts retrospectively for the 2016/2017 to 2018/2019 influenza seasons in the U.S. We compared their performance to methods currently used in the FluSight challenge, namely the equally weighted linear pool and the linear pool. Ensemble forecasts produced from methods with a beta transformation were shown to outperform those from the equally weighted linear pool and the linear pool for all week-ahead targets across in the test seasons based on average log scores. We observed improvements in overall accuracy despite the beta-transformed linear pool or beta mixture methods' modest under-prediction across all targets and seasons. Combination techniques that explicitly adjust for known calibration issues in linear pooling should be considered to improve ensemble probabilistic scores in outbreak settings.