论文标题
对COVID-19感染的稳态行为反应将R返回1的设定点1
Homeostatic behavioural response to COVID-19 infections returns R to a set-point of 1
论文作者
论文摘要
Covid-19大流行中行为的一个明显方面是人们对社区中报告，报告，报告或观察到的感染数量的重点是。我们描述了一个简单的传染病模型在大流行状况中传播的，在这种情况下，人们的行为受到当前感染风险的影响以及这种行为反应的行为稳态以使感染风险恢复到某个首选水平。该模型预测，复制率$ r $将以1个中值为中心，而新感染数量相对变化的相关衡量标准将遵循标准的Cauchy分布。对全球COVID-19数据的分析表明，估计的繁殖率中位数为1，而从报告的新感染数量计算出的相对变化的量度紧密遵循了整个国家和个体国家水平的标准Cauchy分布。
One clear aspect of behaviour in the COVID-19 pandemic has been people's focus on, and response to, reported or observed infection numbers in their community. We describe a simple model of infectious disease spread in a pandemic situation where people's behaviour is influenced by the current risk of infection and where this behavioural response acts homeostatically to return infection risk to a certain preferred level. This model predicts that the reproduction rate $R$ will be centered around a median value of 1, and that a related measure of relative change in the number of new infections will follow the standard Cauchy distribution. Analysis of worldwide COVID-19 data shows that the estimated reproduction rate has a median of 1, and that this measure of relative change calculated from reported numbers of new infections closely follows the standard Cauchy distribution at both an overall and an individual country level.
