论文标题
初始感染大小对网络SIR模型的影响
Effect of initial infection size on network SIR model
论文作者
论文摘要
我们考虑最初感染节点(种子)对随机网络的SIR流行模型的不变部分的影响。例如,当被感染的个体的数量很大,但也与大量受感染的人的建模,以及与更一般的情况一样,例如在宣传活动的情况下,思想的传播,这很重要。经常通过映射到债券渗透问题来研究该模型,其中网络中的边缘沿着沿边缘的概率($ p $)占据,将受感染的个体连接到易感邻居的边缘。这种方法允许人们在消失的小种子分数的极限下计算感染的总最终大小和流行阈值。但是,我们表明,当最初的感染占据了网络的不变分数$ f $时,该方法会产生模棱两可的结果,因为边缘职业和传染传输之间的对应关系不再存在。我们建议在原始联系网络中测量回收个体的巨大组成部分。这具有明确的解释,并正确捕获了流行病大小对$ f $的依赖性。我们给出了在无限尺寸限制下的流行病和流行阈值的精确方程。我们观察到二阶相变的原始配方中的二阶过渡,但是流行阈值随着$ f $的增加而降低。当种子分数$ f $趋于零时,我们恢复了标准结果。
We consider the effect of a nonvanishing fraction of initially infected nodes (seeds) on the SIR epidemic model on random networks. This is relevant when, for example, the number of arriving infected individuals is large, but also to the modeling of a large number of infected individuals, but also to more general situations such as the spread of ideas in the presence of publicity campaigns. This model is frequently studied by mapping to a bond percolation problem, in which edges in the network are occupied with the probability, $p$, of eventual infection along an edge connecting an infected individual to a susceptible neighbor. This approach allows one to calculate the total final size of the infection and epidemic threshold in the limit of a vanishingly small seed fraction. We show, however, that when the initial infection occupies a nonvanishing fraction $f$ of the network, this method yields ambiguous results, as the correspondence between edge occupation and contagion transmission no longer holds. We propose instead to measure the giant component of recovered individuals within the original contact network. This has an unambiguous interpretation and correctly captures the dependence of the epidemic size on $f$. We give exact equations for the size of the epidemic and the epidemic threshold in the infinite size limit. We observe a second order phase transition as in the original formulation, however with an epidemic threshold which decreases with increasing $f$. When the seed fraction $f$ tends to zero we recover the standard results.