论文标题
通过不规则的卷积神经网络改善短期自行车共享需求预测
Improving short-term bike sharing demand forecast through an irregular convolutional neural network
论文作者
论文摘要
作为管理自行车共享系统的重要任务,准确的旅行需求预测可以促进自行车的调度和搬迁以提高用户满意度。近年来,已经引入了许多深度学习算法,以改善自行车使用预测。典型的做法是整合卷积(CNN)和复发性神经网络(RNN),以捕获历史旅行需求中的时空依赖性。对于典型的CNN,卷积操作是通过跨“基质格式”城市移动的内核进行的,以在空间相邻的城市地区提取特征。这种做法假定彼此接近的区域可以提供有用的信息,以提高预测准确性。但是,考虑到影响骑自行车活动的建筑环境特征和旅行行为的空间变化,邻近地区的自行车使用可能并不总是相似的。但是,在时间使用模式中,相距遥远的区域可能会相对相似。为了利用这些遥远的城市地区之间的隐藏联系,该研究提出了一种不规则的卷积长期记忆模型(IRCONV+LSTM),以改善短期自行车共享需求预测。该模型通过不规则的卷积架构修改了传统的CNN,以在“语义邻居”之间提取依赖性。提出的模型通过五个研究站点的一组基准模型进行了评估,其中包括新加坡的一个无码头自行车共享系统,以及芝加哥,华盛顿特区,纽约和伦敦的四个基于车站的系统。我们发现,IRCONV+LSTM优于五个城市中其他基准模型。该模型还可以在自行车使用水平变化和高峰期的区域中取得卓越的性能。研究结果表明,“超越空间邻居的思考”可以进一步改善城市自行车共享系统的短期旅行需求预测。
As an important task for the management of bike sharing systems, accurate forecast of travel demand could facilitate dispatch and relocation of bicycles to improve user satisfaction. In recent years, many deep learning algorithms have been introduced to improve bicycle usage forecast. A typical practice is to integrate convolutional (CNN) and recurrent neural network (RNN) to capture spatial-temporal dependency in historical travel demand. For typical CNN, the convolution operation is conducted through a kernel that moves across a "matrix-format" city to extract features over spatially adjacent urban areas. This practice assumes that areas close to each other could provide useful information that improves prediction accuracy. However, bicycle usage in neighboring areas might not always be similar, given spatial variations in built environment characteristics and travel behavior that affect cycling activities. Yet, areas that are far apart can be relatively more similar in temporal usage patterns. To utilize the hidden linkage among these distant urban areas, the study proposes an irregular convolutional Long-Short Term Memory model (IrConv+LSTM) to improve short-term bike sharing demand forecast. The model modifies traditional CNN with irregular convolutional architecture to extract dependency among "semantic neighbors". The proposed model is evaluated with a set of benchmark models in five study sites, which include one dockless bike sharing system in Singapore, and four station-based systems in Chicago, Washington, D.C., New York, and London. We find that IrConv+LSTM outperforms other benchmark models in the five cities. The model also achieves superior performance in areas with varying levels of bicycle usage and during peak periods. The findings suggest that "thinking beyond spatial neighbors" can further improve short-term travel demand prediction of urban bike sharing systems.