论文标题

自适应风险投票比较审核

Adaptive Risk-Limiting Ballot Comparison Audits

论文作者

Fuller, Benjamin, Harrison, Abigail, Russell, Alexander

论文摘要

风险限制审核(RLA)是严格的统计程序,旨在检测无效的选举结果。 RLA检查选举期间投票的纸质选票,以统计评估选票确定的获胜者与列表报告的获胜者之间的分歧。投票最有效的方法是通过“投票比较”进行的。但是,投票比较要求对每个演员投票的内容进行不信任的声明,而不是对投票总数的简单表格。然后,将此“铸件录音表”(CVR)与选票进行斑点检查以保持一致性。在许多实际情况下,生成合适的CVR的成本主导了进行审计的成本,从而阻止了这些样品有效技术的广泛采用。 我们介绍了一个新的RLA程序:“自适应投票比较”审核。在此审核中,从未产生全球CVR。相反,迭代了三阶段的过程: 1)选择了一批 2)为该批次生产CVR,然后 3)对批次内的投票进行采样,并由审核员检查,并与CVR进行比较。 我们证明,这样的审核可以在产生CVR的一小部分时与标准比较审核相称。我们提出三个主要贡献: 1)RLA的正式对抗模型; 2)对具有严格风险限制的自适应审计程序的定义和分析,以及相关的正确性分析,占典型审核中偶然错误的相关性分析;和 3)对实践效率的分析。 该方法可以在圆圈中(通常用于比较审核),并并联生产采样的CVR。使用佛罗里达州2020年总统大选的数据,风险为5%和1%的利润率,仅产生了22%的CVR;在10%的利润率下,仅产生2%。

Risk-limiting audits (RLAs) are rigorous statistical procedures meant to detect invalid election results. RLAs examine paper ballots cast during the election to statistically assess the possibility of a disagreement between the winner determined by the ballots and the winner reported by tabulation. The most ballot efficient approaches proceed by "ballot comparison." However, ballot comparison requires an untrusted declaration of the contents of each cast ballot, rather than a simple tabulation of vote totals. This "cast-vote record table" (CVR) is then spot-checked against ballots for consistency. In many practical settings, the cost of generating a suitable CVR dominates the cost of conducting the audit, preventing widespread adoption of these sample-efficient techniques. We introduce a new RLA procedure: an "adaptive ballot comparison" audit. In this audit, a global CVR is never produced; instead, a three-stage procedure is iterated: 1) a batch is selected, 2) a CVR is produced for that batch, and 3) a ballot within the batch is sampled, inspected by auditors, and compared with the CVR. We prove that such an audit can achieve risk commensurate with standard comparison audits while generating a fraction of the CVR. We present three main contributions: 1) a formal adversarial model for RLAs; 2) definition and analysis of an adaptive audit procedure with rigorous risk limits and an associated correctness analysis accounting for the incidental errors arising in typical audits; and 3) an analysis of practical efficiency. This method can be organized in rounds (as is typical for comparison audits) where sampled CVRs are produced in parallel. Using data from Florida's 2020 presidential election with 5% risk and 1% margin, only 22% of the CVR is generated; at 10% margin, only 2% is generated.

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