论文标题
与英国和以色列的COVID-19的案例研究的混合隔室模型
A Hybrid Compartmental Model with a Case Study of COVID-19 in Great Britain and Israel
论文作者
论文摘要
鉴于Covid-19对几个社会层面的严重影响，建模限制措施对大流行进化的影响至关重要，因此政府能够做出明智的决定。即使自爆发爆发以来，已经有无数尝试提出各种模型，但数据可用性的增加以及疫苗接种运动的开始要求更新的模型和研究。此外，大多数作品都集中在一个非常特殊的地方或应用上，我们努力达到更一般的模型，诉诸来自不同国家的数据。特别是，我们比较了英国和以色列，这是疫苗接种计划和社会结构的两个高度不同的情况。我们建立了一个基于网络的模型，足以建模政府规定的限制的不同情况，但通用的限制足以应用于任何人群。为了减轻计算负载，我们为模型提出了分解策略。
Given the severe impact of COVID-19 on several societal levels, it is of crucial importance to model the impact of restriction measures on the pandemic evolution, so that governments are able to take informed decisions. Even though there have been countless attempts to propose diverse models since the raise of the outbreak, the increase in data availability and start of vaccination campaigns calls for updated models and studies. Furthermore, most of the works are focused on a very particular place or application and we strive to attain a more general model, resorting to data from different countries. In particular, we compare Great Britain and Israel, two highly different scenarios in terms of vaccination plans and social structure. We build a network-based model, complex enough to model different scenarios of government-mandated restrictions, but generic enough to be applied to any population. To ease the computational load we propose a decomposition strategy for our model.
