论文标题

深度学习宏观经济学

Deep Learning Macroeconomics

论文作者

Guimaraes, Rafael R. S.

论文摘要

有限的数据集和复杂的非线性关系是将计量经济学应用于宏观经济问题时可能出现的挑战。这项研究建议深度学习是一种在前一种情况下转移学习的方法,并在后一种情况下绘制变量之间的关系。尽管宏观经济学家在贝叶斯环境中假设给定的先验分布时已经应用了转移学习,但是根据在其他模型中观察到的结果估算具有信号限制和校准参数的结构VAR,以命名一些示例,以更加系统的转移学习策略在应用的宏观经济学中进步,是我们引入的。我们从经验上探讨了拟议的策略,表明来自不同但相关领域的数据,一种转移学习,有助于确定在没有商业周期约会委员会委员会并快速估算基于经济的产出差距时确定商业周期阶段。接下来,由于深度学习方法是一种学习表征的方式,因此由多个非线性转换组成而形成的方法,以产生更多的抽象表示,因此我们将深度学习应用于从高频变量中绘制低频。获得的结果表明,深度学习模型适用于宏观经济问题。首先,模型学会了正确对美国的业务周期进行分类。然后,应用转移学习,他们能够确定巴西和欧洲数据的样本外的业务周期。同样,模型学会了根据美国数据估算输出差距,并在面对巴西数据时获得了良好的性能。此外,深度学习被证明足以将低频变量从高频数据绘制到按相关序列插入,分发和推断时间序列的插值,分发和推断时间序列。

Limited datasets and complex nonlinear relationships are among the challenges that may emerge when applying econometrics to macroeconomic problems. This research proposes deep learning as an approach to transfer learning in the former case and to map relationships between variables in the latter case. Although macroeconomists already apply transfer learning when assuming a given a priori distribution in a Bayesian context, estimating a structural VAR with signal restriction and calibrating parameters based on results observed in other models, to name a few examples, advance in a more systematic transfer learning strategy in applied macroeconomics is the innovation we are introducing. We explore the proposed strategy empirically, showing that data from different but related domains, a type of transfer learning, helps identify the business cycle phases when there is no business cycle dating committee and to quick estimate a economic-based output gap. Next, since deep learning methods are a way of learning representations, those that are formed by the composition of multiple non-linear transformations, to yield more abstract representations, we apply deep learning for mapping low-frequency from high-frequency variables. The results obtained show the suitability of deep learning models applied to macroeconomic problems. First, models learned to classify United States business cycles correctly. Then, applying transfer learning, they were able to identify the business cycles of out-of-sample Brazilian and European data. Along the same lines, the models learned to estimate the output gap based on the U.S. data and obtained good performance when faced with Brazilian data. Additionally, deep learning proved adequate for mapping low-frequency variables from high-frequency data to interpolate, distribute, and extrapolate time series by related series.

扫码加入交流群

加入微信交流群

微信交流群二维码

扫码加入学术交流群,获取更多资源