论文标题
欧盟加入是否提高了欧盟13中的专利性能？ - 使用贝叶斯结构时间序列模型的因果影响分析的批判性评估
Has EU accession boosted patents performance in the EU-13? -- A critical evaluation using causal impact analysis with Bayesian structural time-series models
论文作者
论文摘要
如今，创新是经济发展的主要决定因素之一。专利是创新产出的关键衡量标准，因为专利指标反映了国家，技术和公司的创造性绩效。本文通过调查新欧盟成员国（EU-13）内的专利绩效，提供了有关扩大欧盟（EU）因果关系的新见解。基于从1985 - 2017年从OECD数据库收集的数据以及使用贝叶斯结构性时间表模型（Google提出的）的因果影响的数据指出，结论是一个结论，即加入欧盟对罗马尼亚，爱沙尼亚，波兰，捷克，克罗地亚，克罗地亚和利思洋的腐败有重大影响对专利性能产生了重大影响。对于欧盟13个国家，对专利绩效没有重大影响。在欧盟加入效应是否重要，欧盟13在专利绩效方面远远落后于欧盟-15（2004年之前进入欧盟的国家）。大多数专利（98.66 \％）分配给EU-15，只有1.34％的受让人属于EU-13。
Nowadays innovation is one of the main determinants of economic development. Patents are a key measure of innovation output, as patent indicators reflect the inventive performance of countries, technologies and firms. This paper provides new insights on the causal effects of the enlargement of the European Union (EU) by investigating the patents performance within the new EU member states (EU-13). The empirical results based on data collected from the OECD database from 1985-2017 and causal impact using a Bayesian structural time-series model (proposed by Google) point towards a conclusion that joining the EU has had a significant impact on patents performance in Romania, Estonia, Poland, Czech Republic, Croatia and Lithuania, although in the latter two countries the impact was negative. For the rest of the EU-13 countries there is no significant effect on patent performance. Whether the EU accession effect is significant or not, the EU-13 are far behind the EU-15 (countries which entered the EU before 2004) in terms of patent performance. The majority of patents (98.66\%) are assigned to the EU-15, with just 1.34\% of assignees belonging to the EU-13.
