论文标题
使用基于代理的网络模型评估Omicron传播缓解策略的有效性
Assessment of the effectiveness of Omicron transmission mitigation strategies for European universities using an agent-based network model
论文作者
论文摘要
在许多国家，返回大学期间正在进行全面的校园行动，这是许多国家的一个有争议的讨论。在密集的课程环境中发生大规模爆发的风险与面对面教学的好处形成鲜明对比。传输风险取决于一系列参数，例如疫苗接种覆盖率和功效，接触次数以及采用非药物干预措施（NPI）。由于欧洲的一般学术自由，许多大学被要求自主决定和实施干预措施，并规范校园内行动。在病毒迅速变化的疫苗接种覆盖范围和参数的背景下，大学通常缺乏足够的科学见解来基于这些决定。为了解决这个问题，我们分析了一所中型欧洲大学的10755名学生和974名教职员工的传播动态的校准，基于数据驱动的代理模拟。我们使用由学生入学数据重建的共同位置网络，并根据教育机构的暴发规模分布来校准传播风险。我们专注于可行的干预措施，这些干预措施是大学现有决策过程的一部分，以为具体的政策决策提供指导。在这里，我们表明，随着SARS-COV-2病毒的Omicron变体，即使将25％的入住率和通用面具授权降低到25％，鉴于最近报道了奥地利的学生的疫苗接种覆盖率，还不足以防止大规模爆发。我们的结果表明，如果需要在校园里有学生和教职员工，则在大学环境中控制病毒的传播与可用的疫苗与NPI相结合是不可行的。
Returning universities to full on-campus operations while the COVID-19 pandemic is ongoing has been a controversial discussion in many countries. The risk of large outbreaks in dense course settings is contrasted by the benefits of in-person teaching. Transmission risk depends on a range of parameters, such as vaccination coverage and efficacy, number of contacts and adoption of non-pharmaceutical intervention measures (NPIs). Due to the generalised academic freedom in Europe, many universities are asked to autonomously decide on and implement intervention measures and regulate on-campus operations. In the context of rapidly changing vaccination coverage and parameters of the virus, universities often lack sufficient scientific insight to base these decisions on. To address this problem, we analyse a calibrated, data-driven agent-based simulation of transmission dynamics of 10755 students and 974 faculty members in a medium-sized European university. We use a co-location network reconstructed from student enrollment data and calibrate transmission risk based on outbreak size distributions in education institutions. We focus on actionable interventions that are part of the already existing decision-making process of universities to provide guidance for concrete policy decisions. Here we show that, with the Omicron variant of the SARS-CoV-2 virus, even a reduction to 25% occupancy and universal mask mandates are not enough to prevent large outbreaks given the vaccination coverage of about 80% recently reported for students in Austria. Our results show that controlling the spread of the virus with available vaccines in combination with NPIs is not feasible in the university setting if presence of students and faculty on campus is required.
