论文标题
实时监控经济：实际活动和价格的趋势和差距
Monitoring the Economy in Real Time: Trends and Gaps in Real Activity and Prices
论文作者
论文摘要
我们提出了两个实时混合频率半结构时间序列模型的规格，用于评估美国的输出潜力，输出差距，菲利普斯曲线和Okun定律。基线模型使用最小的基于理论的多元识别限制来告知趋势周期分解，而替代模型则将CBO的输出差距添加为观察到的变量。后一个模型导致通货膨胀和实际变量之间的更平滑的产出潜力和较低的周期性相关性，但在短期之外的预测中表现较差。这种方法可以评估和实时监视官方趋势和差距估计。
We propose two specifications of a real-time mixed-frequency semi-structural time series model for evaluating the output potential, output gap, Phillips curve, and Okun's law for the US. The baseline model uses minimal theory-based multivariate identification restrictions to inform trend-cycle decomposition, while the alternative model adds the CBO's output gap measure as an observed variable. The latter model results in a smoother output potential and lower cyclical correlation between inflation and real variables but performs worse in forecasting beyond the short term. This methodology allows for the assessment and real-time monitoring of official trend and gap estimates.
