论文标题
使用双重重力模型探索郊区乘客流动的空间模式
Exploring Spatial Patterns of Interurban Passenger Flows Using Dual Gravity Models
论文作者
论文摘要
交通网络中的乘客流动反映了城市系统中的空间交互模式。重力模型可用于定量描述和预测空间流。但是，在缺少部分数据的情况下，如何建模乘客流动并揭示城市和交通网络的深层结构仍然是一个问题。本文致力于通过双重重力模型和腾腾位置大数据来表征中国北京木星 - 海比地区的城市间乘客流动。参数估计方法是最小二乘回归。主要结果如下。首先，双重重力模型都可以有效地描述铁路和高速公路乘客流。缺少空间数据的一小部分可以由预测值组成。其次，可以揭示流量的分形特性。与高速公路乘客流相比，铁路乘客流动遵循重力缩放法。第三，预测残差表明近年来研究区域中城间连接的趋势变化。空间动力学的重心似乎从北京-Tianjin-Tangshan三角形转变为北京-baoding-shijiazhuang轴。可以得出结论，双重重力模型是分析交通网络和流动的空间结构和动态的有效工具。此外，这些模型提供了一种新的方法来估计流量网络和空间流模式的分形维度。
Passenger flows in a traffic network reflect spatial interaction patterns in an urban systems. Gravity models can be employed to quantitatively describe and predict spatial flows. However, how to model passenger flows and reveal the deep structure of urban and traffic networks in the case of missing partial data is still a problem to be solved. This paper is devoted to characterizing the interurban passenger flows in the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region of China by means of dual gravity models and Tencent location big data. The method of parameter estimation is the least squares regression. The main results are as follows. First, both railway and highway passenger flows can be effectively described by the dual gravity model. A small part of missing spatial data can be made up by the predicted values. Second, the fractal properties of traffic flows can be revealed. The railway passenger flows more follow gravity scaling law than the highway passenger flows. Third, the prediction residuals indicate the changing trend of interurban connections in the study area in recent years. The center of gravity of spatial dynamics seems to shift from the Beijing-Tianjin-Tangshan triangle to the Beijing-Baoding-Shijiazhuang axis. A conclusion can be reached that the dual gravity models is an effective tools of for analyzing spatial structures and dynamics of traffic networks and flows. Moreover, the models provide a new approach to estimate fractal dimension of traffic network and spatial flow patterns.
