论文标题
风险和科学声誉：冷融合的教训
Risk and Scientific Reputation: Lessons from Cold Fusion
论文作者
论文摘要
许多科学家对与新技术相关的潜在灾难性风险表示担忧。但是表达关注是一回事，确定严肃的候选人另一个。这种风险可能是新颖的，罕见的，难以研究。数据将稀缺，因此需要投机。提出这种担忧的科学家不仅可能像厄运者一样面临不赞成，而且还因为他们非常规的观点。然而，在这些情况下，虚假负面因素的成本（错误地驳回了关于灾难性风险的警告）的定义很高。由于这些原因，科学方法和文化的各个方面，例如对认知风险和非常规观点的态度，与管理极端技术风险的挑战有关。在本文中，我参考了一个现实世界的示例，该示例共享了许多相同的特征，即所谓的“冷融合”。
Many scientists have expressed concerns about potential catastrophic risks associated with new technologies. But expressing concern is one thing, identifying serious candidates another. Such risks are likely to be novel, rare, and difficult to study; data will be scarce, making speculation necessary. Scientists who raise such concerns may face disapproval not only as doomsayers, but also for their unconventional views. Yet the costs of false negatives in these cases -- of wrongly dismissing warnings about catastrophic risks -- are by definition very high. For these reasons, aspects of the methodology and culture of science, such as its attitude to epistemic risk and to unconventional views, are relevant to the challenges of managing extreme technological risks. In this piece I discuss these issues with reference to a real-world example that shares many of the same features, that of so-called 'cold fusion'.
