论文标题

连接多步概率预测的有条件近似归一化流,并应用于电力需求

Conditional Approximate Normalizing Flows for Joint Multi-Step Probabilistic Forecasting with Application to Electricity Demand

论文作者

Jamgochian, Arec, Wu, Di, Menda, Kunal, Jung, Soyeon, Kochenderfer, Mykel J.

论文摘要

一些现实世界中的决策问题需要立即通过多个步骤进行概率预测。但是,概率预测的方法可能无法捕获长期存在的基础时间序列中的相关性,因为错误会累积。一种这样的应用程序是在网格环境中不确定性下的资源调度,这需要预测固有嘈杂的电力需求,但通常是循环的。在本文中,我们介绍了条件近似归一化流(CANF),以在长期范围内存在相关性时进行概率的多步时序列预测。我们首先证明了我们的方法在估计玩具分布的密度方面的功效,发现CANF将KL差异提高了三分之一,而Gaussian混合模型的差异仍然可以显式调理。然后,我们使用公开可用的家庭用电数据集来展示CANF对联合概率多步骤预测的有效性。经验结果表明,有条件的近似流量在多步骤的准确性方面优于其他方法,并且最多可提高10倍的计划决策。我们的实施可从https://github.com/sisl/jointdemandforecasting获得。

Some real-world decision-making problems require making probabilistic forecasts over multiple steps at once. However, methods for probabilistic forecasting may fail to capture correlations in the underlying time-series that exist over long time horizons as errors accumulate. One such application is with resource scheduling under uncertainty in a grid environment, which requires forecasting electricity demand that is inherently noisy, but often cyclic. In this paper, we introduce the conditional approximate normalizing flow (CANF) to make probabilistic multi-step time-series forecasts when correlations are present over long time horizons. We first demonstrate our method's efficacy on estimating the density of a toy distribution, finding that CANF improves the KL divergence by one-third compared to that of a Gaussian mixture model while still being amenable to explicit conditioning. We then use a publicly available household electricity consumption dataset to showcase the effectiveness of CANF on joint probabilistic multi-step forecasting. Empirical results show that conditional approximate normalizing flows outperform other methods in terms of multi-step forecast accuracy and lead to up to 10x better scheduling decisions. Our implementation is available at https://github.com/sisl/JointDemandForecasting.

扫码加入交流群

加入微信交流群

微信交流群二维码

扫码加入学术交流群,获取更多资源