论文标题
一般政策干预的无条件影响
Unconditional Effects of General Policy Interventions
论文作者
论文摘要
本文研究了一般政策干预的无条件影响，其中包括位置尺度的转变和同时转变为特殊情况。位置尺度的转变旨在研究旨在不仅改变协变量的均值或位置的反事实政策，而且还改变其分散或量表。同时转移是指同时发生两个或多个协变量发生的情况。例如，通过另一个协变量的变化，以一定速度补偿了一个协变量的变化。不考虑这些可能的规模或同时转移会导致对潜在政策对结果变量的潜在政策影响的评估。无条件的策略参数是通过简单的半参数估计器进行估算的，研究了渐近性能。实施蒙特卡洛模拟以研究其有限样本性能。提出的方法适用于Mincer方程，以研究教育多年对工资的影响并研究怀孕期间吸烟对出生体重的影响。
This paper studies the unconditional effects of a general policy intervention, which includes location-scale shifts and simultaneous shifts as special cases. The location-scale shift is intended to study a counterfactual policy aimed at changing not only the mean or location of a covariate but also its dispersion or scale. The simultaneous shift refers to the situation where shifts in two or more covariates take place simultaneously. For example, a shift in one covariate is compensated at a certain rate by a shift in another covariate. Not accounting for these possible scale or simultaneous shifts will result in an incorrect assessment of the potential policy effects on an outcome variable of interest. The unconditional policy parameters are estimated with simple semiparametric estimators, for which asymptotic properties are studied. Monte Carlo simulations are implemented to study their finite sample performances. The proposed approach is applied to a Mincer equation to study the effects of changing years of education on wages and to study the effect of smoking during pregnancy on birth weight.
