论文标题

部分可观测时空混沌系统的无模型预测

How Does Risk Hedging Impact Operations? Insights from a Price-Setting Newsvendor Model

论文作者

Wang, Liao, Yao, Jin, Zhang, Xiaowei

论文摘要

如果金融资产的价格变动会影响公司的产品需求,则该公司可以通过调整其运营决策来应对影响。例如,在汽车行业中,汽车制造商在油价上涨时降低了燃油式汽车的售价。同时,该公司可以使用其运营决策共同实施金融资产。在此激励的情况下,我们开发并解决了一个普遍的风险管理模型,该模型集成了套期保值的新闻顾问。最佳的对冲策略是通过分析来计算的,这导致了一个明确的目标函数,以优化价格和``虚拟生产量''(VPQ)。 (后者决定了服务水平,即需求履行概率。)我们发现,对冲通常会降低最佳价格{当公司将目标平均收益设置为仅生产最大预期利润时。对于目标平均收益的情况相同,当资产价格趋势积极影响产品需求时,对冲也可以减少最佳VPQ;同时,当撞击为负时,它可能会增加VPQ的少量。我们构建了返回风险有效的边界,该边界是最佳的回流风险权衡取舍。我们使用来自著名汽车制造商的数据的数值研究表明,在我们的模型下,VPQ的价格和降低的降低量很小,对冲策略大大降低了风险而没有实质性降低运营利润。

If a financial asset's price movement impacts a firm's product demand, the firm can respond to the impact by adjusting its operational decisions. For example, in the automotive industry, car makers decrease the selling prices of fuel-inefficient cars when the oil price rises. Meanwhile, the firm can implement a risk-hedging strategy using the financial asset jointly with its operational decisions. Motivated by this, we develop and solve a general risk-management model integrating risk hedging into a price-setting newsvendor. The optimal hedging strategy is calculated analytically, which leads to an explicit objective function for optimizing price and ``virtual production quantity'' (VPQ). (The latter determines the service level, i.e., the demand fulfillment probability.) We find that hedging generally reduces the optimal price {when the firm sets the target mean return as its production-only maximum expected profit. With the same condition on the target mean return}, hedging also reduces the optimal VPQ when the asset price trend positively impacts product demand; meanwhile, it may increase the VPQ by a small margin when the impact is negative. We construct the return-risk efficient frontier that characterizes the optimal return-risk trade-off. Our numerical study using data from a prominent automotive manufacturer shows that the markdowns in price and reduction in VPQ are small under our model and that the hedging strategy substantially reduces risk without materially reducing operational profit.

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