论文标题
COVID课程：是否有任何方法可以减少Covid-19对美国经济的负面影响？
COVID Lessons: Was there any way to reduce the negative effect of COVID-19 on the United States economy?
论文作者
论文摘要
本文旨在研究Covid-19的经济影响。为此，我在第一步中表明，调整后的SEQIER模型是SEIR模型的概括形式，非常适合真正的Covid诱发的每日死亡数据，以便可以很好地捕获数据的非线性。然后，我使用了带有额外参数的模型来评估Covid-19通过就业市场的经济影响。结果表明，美国政府可以实施一种简单的策略，以减少19日的负面影响。因此，该论文标题的答案是肯定的。如果锁定政策考虑人口的异源性特征，并对老年人施加了更多限制，并控制了他们与其他人口之间的互动，那么Covid-19对人们的生活和美国经济的毁灭性影响大大减少了。具体而言，根据本文的结果，该策略可以分别降低美国的死亡率和GDP损失分别为0.03％和2％。通过将这些结果与显示死亡率和GDP损失分别为0.1％和3.5％的实际数据进行比较，我们可以确定降低的死亡率为0.07％，这意味着相同百分比执行最佳目标策略的GDP损失百分比可以挽救2/3的生命。大约有378,000人死于2020年期间的Covid-19，因此将死亡率降低到0.03％，意味着挽救了约280,000人的生命，这是巨大的。
This paper aims to study the economic impact of COVID-19. To do that, in the first step, I showed that the adjusted SEQIER model, which is a generalization form of SEIR model, is a good fit to the real COVID-induced daily death data in a way that it could capture the nonlinearities of the data very well. Then, I used this model with extra parameters to evaluate the economic effect of COVID-19 through job market. The results show that there was a simple strategy that US government could implemented in order to reduce the negative effect of COVID-19. Because of that the answer to the paper's title is yes. If lockdown policies consider the heterogenous characteristics of population and impose more restrictions on old people and control the interactions between them and the rest of population the devastating impact of COVID-19 on people lives and US economy reduced dramatically. Specifically, based on this paper's results, this strategy could reduce the death rate and GDP loss of the United States 0.03 percent and 2 percent respectively. By comparing these results with actual data which show death rate and GDP loss 0.1 percent and 3.5 percent respectively, we could figure out that death rate reduction is 0.07 percent which means for the same percent of GDP loss executing optimal targeted policy could save 2/3 lives. Approximately, 378,000 persons dead because of COVID-19 during 2020, hence reducing death rate to 0.03 percent means saving around 280,000 lives, which is huge.
