论文标题
证据陈述的法医强度优选是使用相关数据，定量测量和统计模型计算的似然比
Forensic strength of evidence statements should preferably be likelihood ratios calculated using relevant data, quantitative measurements, and statistical models
论文作者
论文摘要
Lennard（2013）[指纹识别：我们走了多远？ AUS J法务科学。 doi：10.1080 / 00450618.2012.752037]提出，统计模型的数字输出不应在法庭上呈现（如果需要”，则“如果需要” /“如果需要”）。取而代之的是，他主张支持“专家意见”，该意见可以由统计模型告知，但这本身并不是统计模型的输出。我们认为，他提出的程序缺乏透明度，测试有效性和可靠性的易度性以及对认知偏差的相对鲁棒性，这是基于相关数据，定量测量和统计模型的可能性激活方法的优势，因此优先。
Lennard (2013) [Fingerprint identification: how far have we come? Aus J Forensic Sci. doi:10.1080/00450618.2012.752037] proposes that the numeric output of statistical models should not be presented in court (except "if necessary" / "if required"). Instead he argues in favour of an "expert opinion" which may be informed by a statistical model but which is not itself the output of a statistical model. We argue that his proposed procedure lacks the transparency, the ease of testing of validity and reliability, and the relative robustness to cognitive bias that are the strengths of a likelihood-ratio approach based on relevant data, quantitative measurements, and statistical models, and that the latter is therefore preferable.
