论文标题
传染性热点之间的空间干扰：流行冷凝和最佳风速
Spatial interference between infectious hotspots: epidemic condensation and optimal windspeed
论文作者
论文摘要
我们讨论了两个传染性热点之间空间干扰的影响，这是两者之间个体的迁移率（风速）及其相对感染性程度的函数。只要上游热点比下游的热点不那么传染性，增加风速就会导致下游热点中感染峰的单调降低。一旦上游热点变得比下游的热点大约是两倍至五倍的感染力，就会出现最佳的风速，因此，在下游热点中达到了局部最小峰强度，以及局部最大值，除此之外，风的有益效果得到了恢复。由于这种非单调趋势让人联想到非理想状态的状态方程，因此我们将上述现象流行凝结。当上游热点的相对感染超过五因子时，风的有益效应完全丢失了：最佳速度上方的任何风速都会导致较高的感染峰。还发现，两个热点之间的空间相关性衰减速度比它们的反距离慢得多。希望上述发现可以为不同城市和城市聚集群之间的最佳禁闭政策提供定性的线索。
We discuss the effects of spatial interference between two infectious hotspots as a function of the mobility of individuals (wind speed) between the two and their relative degree of infectivity. As long as the upstream hotspot is less contagious than the downstream one, increasing the wind speed leads to a monotonic decrease of the infection peak in the downstream hotspot. Once the upstream hotspot becomes about between twice and five times more infectious than the downstream one, an optimal wind speed emerges, whereby a local minimum peak intensity is attained in the downstream hotspot, along with a local maximum beyond which the beneficial effect of the wind is restored. Since this non-monotonic trend is reminiscent of the equation of state of non-ideal f luids, we dub the above phenomena epidemic condensation. When the relative infectivity of the upstream hotspot exceeds about a factor five, the beneficial effect of the wind above the optimal speed is completely lost: any wind speed above the optimal one leads to a higher infection peak. It is also found that spatial correlation between the two hotspots decay much more slowly than their inverse distance. It is hoped that the above findings may offer a qualitative clue for optimal confinement policies between different cities and urban agglomerates.
