论文标题
映射亲子从人口规模的家谱迁移的时间趋势
Mapping Temporal Trends of Parent-Child Migration from Population-Scale Family Trees
论文作者
论文摘要
用户生成的家谱对于构建人口规模的家庭网络并研究了许多世代和过去的人口动态是无价的。家族树包含有关个人，例如出生和死亡场所和岁月的信息，以及亲属关系，例如亲子，配偶和兄弟姐妹的关系。关于家谱中个人的此类信息使得随着时间的流逝提取迁移网络是可能的。尽管取得了最新进展，但由于缺乏对时间分配对流动模式的影响的知识，现有的时间变化流量数据的空间和时间抽象技术存在局限性。在这项研究中，我们从rootsweb.com的清洁，地理编码和连接的家谱中从1776年至1926年之间提取了州到州的迁移模式。我们使用父母和孩子的出生地和出生地来提取州之间的代际迁移流。为了揭示迁移模式的时间趋势，我们评估了三种时间分配策略：（1）美国历史上的预定义时期，（2）具有固定长度的重叠时间，以及（3）具有可变长度的时间段，其每个时间段的移动量大约相等。为了说明迁移流中地理接近度和流量体积的影响，我们使用双重约束的重力模型将原始流量转化为模块化流。我们的初步结果表明，美国的纵向和时间范围是美国的纵向人口流动性。
User-generated family trees are invaluable for constructing population-scale family networks and studying population dynamics over many generations and far into the past. Family trees contain information on individuals such as birth and death places and years, and kinship ties, e.g., parent-child, spouse, and sibling relationships. Such information about individuals in family trees makes it possible to extract migration networks over time. Despite the recent advances, existing spatial and temporal abstraction techniques for time-variant flow data have limitations due to the lack of knowledge on the effect of temporal partitioning on flow patterns. In this study, we extracted state-to-state migration patterns over a period of 150 years between 1776 and 1926 from a cleaned, geocoded and connected family trees from Rootsweb.com. We used birthplaces and birthyears of parents and children to extract intergenerational migration flows between states. To reveal the temporal trends of migration patterns, we evaluated three temporal partitioning strategies: (1) predefined periods in American history, (2) overlapping time periods with fixed length, and (3) time periods with variable length, which have approximately equal volume of moves per time period. To account for the effect of geographic proximity and flow volumes in migration flows, we transformed the raw flows into modularity flows using a double-constrained a gravity model. Our preliminary results revealed longitudinal population mobility in the U.S. on such a large spatial and temporal scale.
