论文标题

分析和预测电子商务的购买意图:匿名与确定的客户

Analyzing and Predicting Purchase Intent in E-commerce: Anonymous vs. Identified Customers

论文作者

Hendriksen, Mariya, Kuiper, Ernst, Nauts, Pim, Schelter, Sebastian, de Rijke, Maarten

论文摘要

电子商务平台的普及不断增长。能够理解和预测客户行为对于通过个性化结果演示,建议和特别优惠来定制用户体验至关重要。以前的工作已经考虑了广泛的预测模型,以及从点击流数据推断以记录会话特征的功能,并从用户数据推断为记录客户特征。到目前为止,购买预测领域的大多数工作都集中在已知的客户上,主要忽略了匿名会议,即由非遗传或未识别的客户发起的会话。但是,在我们可以使用的大型欧洲电子商务平台的取消识别数据中,超过50%的会话从匿名会议开始。在本文中,我们专注于电子商务平台上匿名和已确定会议的购买预测。我们从对购买与非购买会话的描述性分析开始。该分析为基于功能的模型提供了用于匿名会议和确定会议的购买预测的定义;我们的模型考虑了匿名会话的一系列基于会话的功能,例如通道类型,访问页面的数量和设备类型。对于已确定的用户会话,我们的分析将客户历史数据指向购买和非购买会话之间的宝贵歧视者。基于我们的分析,我们构建了两种类型的预测因子:(1)匿名的预测变量,它比生产准备就绪的预测变量超过17.54%f1; (2)使用会话数据以及客户历史记录并实现96.20%的确定客户的预测指标。最后,我们讨论了我们发现的更广泛的实际含义。

The popularity of e-commerce platforms continues to grow. Being able to understand, and predict customer behavior is essential for customizing the user experience through personalized result presentations, recommendations, and special offers. Previous work has considered a broad range of prediction models as well as features inferred from clickstream data to record session characteristics, and features inferred from user data to record customer characteristics. So far, most previous work in the area of purchase prediction has focused on known customers, largely ignoring anonymous sessions, i.e., sessions initiated by a non-logged-in or unrecognized customer. However, in the de-identified data from a large European e-commerce platform available to us, more than 50% of the sessions start as anonymous sessions. In this paper, we focus on purchase prediction for both anonymous and identified sessions on an e-commerce platform. We start with a descriptive analysis of purchase vs. non-purchase sessions. This analysis informs the definition of a feature-based model for purchase prediction for anonymous sessions and identified sessions; our models consider a range of session-based features for anonymous sessions, such as the channel type, the number of visited pages, and the device type. For identified user sessions, our analysis points to customer history data as a valuable discriminator between purchase and non-purchase sessions. Based on our analysis, we build two types of predictors: (1) a predictor for anonymous that beats a production-ready predictor by over 17.54% F1; and (2) a predictor for identified customers that uses session data as well as customer history and achieves an F1 of 96.20%. Finally, we discuss the broader practical implications of our findings.

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